In about 26 hours, the baseball playoffs will be getting underway, and leading off the slate of games tomorrow afternoon is, of course, the Phillies and Rockies. Now, I could go into a long rant about how I feel like this is unfair, and Major League Baseball is screwing the last two National League pennant winners, but it's been done on enough other sites. Honestly, did you expect Bud Selig to put the Yankees game in the afternoon, or have the Angels/Red Sox or Dodgers/Cardinals start at 11 in the morning? There are only four series, so this one gets the short straw. That's it, there's nothing else that can be said about it.
So, let's move on to this upcoming series, shall we? There's still no word on who Charlie is going to pick for his starter for Game One tomorrow, but Major League Baseball requires an announcement be made today, so news will be out fairly shortly, I'd imagine. Regardless of who does start, this will be the second time in the last three years that the Phillies and Rockies have faced each other in the postseason. You may remember the last time, in 2007, when the Rockies proceeded to sweep the Phillies right out of the playoffs, after both teams caught fire to even make it to October baseball. Now, it's two years later, and both teams are a bit different. Before I get to my pick for the series, I'm going to take a look at both teams and tell you who has the edge.
Offense:
At the plate, there isn't that much that separates the Phillies and the Rockies. Both teams have big boppers that can drive the ball out of the park with any swing. For Colorado, Troy Tulowitzki really turned himself around after an injury-riddled 2008, hitting .297 with 32 home runs and 92 RBI, both of which led the Rockies. Todd Helton has lost some of his home run power, only hitting 15 longballs this season, but he's still a threat to take one out at any time. Clint Barmes found a new home a second base and hit a career high 23 home runs, while Ian Stewart, Chris Iannetta, Dexter Fowler and Seth Smith are all young, potential stars in the making that have meshed very well with Colorado's veterans. Jason Giambi was brought in late in the season, and not only provides a veteran pressence, but a big bat off the bench, much like Matt Stairs for the Phillies last season.
Meanwhile, wherever the Rockies are ranked second in offense in the National League, it seems like the Phillies are ranked first. Aside from batting average and on base percentage, the Phillies rank first or second in the National League in every other offensive category. Like the Rockies, the Phils have seven players in their starting lineup with ten or more home runs, but the Phillies also have the speed advantage over Colorado. For the Phils, it starts at the top of their lineup. If Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino can get hits and steal bases, then the Phillies are going to score runs. Since the All Star break, Jimmy has put his horrible start to the season in the rearview mirror, as he's hit .272 with 14 home runs and 43 RBI. Jimmy scored 100 runs on the season and stole 31 bases, while Shane chimed in with 102 runs scored and 25 steals. The heart of the Phillies' lineup is one of the best in the game, with Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez and Jayson Werth all hitting 30 or more home runs on the season. Utley and Howard each scored over 100 runs, and while Chase had his share of struggles down the stretch, Howard, Ibanez and Werth were all able to help pick him back up. Pedro Feliz also swings a good bat out of the seven hole in the lineup, as he racked up a career high in hits this year and drove in 82.
Quite possibly the most important thing in this series on offense is how each team hits lefthanded pitching. The Phillies have a middle of the lineup stacked with left handed bats, and while most people would see that as an issue, the Phils actually have five starters hitting .285 or better against left handed pitching. The Rockies, on the other hand, feature three starters at that level. For Colorado, that could be a big issue, as the first two pitchers the Phillies are going to start are both left handed. Team speed is another big plus for the Phils. While the Rockies have Dexter Fowler and Troy Tulowitzki as their main stealing threats, the Phillies feature Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth and even Chase Utley. Chris Iannetta allowed 50 stolen bases on the season, while backup catcher Yorvit Torrealba allowed 49 steals in 64 games. In a close game, the speed of the Phillies could be what pushes them over the edge.
Both these teams are fairly evenly matched when it comes to their lineups, but with the speed advantage and the better bats against left handed pitching, I think I know who has the edge.
Advantage: Phillies
Starting Rotations:
The pitching staff for the Rockies was a very pleasant surprise this season. Colorado has five pitchers with ten or more wins, and could throw any one of them at the Phillies during the NLDS. It's likely that the Phillies will see Ubaldo Jimenez and Jason Marquis or Aaron Cook in the first two games, with Jorge De La Rosa being a huge question mark. If De La Rosa can't go for the Rockies, then the Phillies will have quite possibly avoided the hottest pitcher in baseball over the last three months. De La Rosa started the year 0-6, and worked his way to a 16-9 record with a 4.38 ERA and 193 strikeouts. Without his turnaround, it's very likely that the Rockies aren't even in the playoffs this year. Luckily for them, Aaron Cook was able to return to the rotation in the last week, and allowed just one earned run in 13 innings of work. If De La Rosa can't go, then Jason Hammel will more than likely pitch in the series for the Rockies. In his one start against the Phils this year, Hammel pitched very well, going 6.2 innings and allowing three runs with six strikeouts and no walks. The Rockies also don't allow many home runs, though they do walk more batters than the Phillies, with both Jimenez and Marquis walking over 80 batters this season.
For the Phillies, it's not a question of who the first two starters are going to be, it's whether or not they can pitch the way that people know they can. Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are going to pitch in the first two games of the NLDS against the Rockies, but if they don't pitch well, the Phillies could find themselves in a familiar 0-2 hole as they head to Colorado. Hamels was able to rebound from a very poor April, and showed flashes of the man who was named World Series MVP last season, but he hasn't had a good start since September 17 against the Nationals. Since that start, he's allowed 13 runs in 16.2 innings, and lost two of the three starts. Cliff Lee set the world on fire when he arrived in Philadelphia, going 5-0 with a 0.68 ERA in his first five starts, but he's been less than remarkable since then, finishing the year with a 2-4 stretch and an ERA closer to 5.00. In his one start against the Rockies, Lee was solid, pitching seven innings and allowing just one run, but that was his second start as a Phillie. Lee has had issues with pitch location of late, and batters are just waiting for a pitch to hit, since they know he doesn't throw many balls. Lee is going to have to get his location back to the way it was at the start of his time with the Phillies, or they could be in big trouble. The back end of the rotation is going to feature at least Joe Blanton, who had a good year, and either J.A. Happ or Pedro Martinez. Happ finished the year tied for the team lead in wins, while Pedro was a nice surprise and helped bolster the rotation since his arrival. Since his 130 pitch outing against the Mets though, Pedro has only thrown seven innings and allowed six runs on 13 hits. The Phillies could go with Happ, just to throw another left hander at the Rockies, but nothing's set in stone yet.
Overall, the rotations are fairly close as well. If the Phillies get good outings from Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, then the Rockies will be backed into a corner. If Lee and Hamels struggle, then the pressure is going to be on Joe Blanton and either J.A. Happ or Pedro Martinez to get the series back to Philadelphia for a Game Five. Right now, with the way Lee and Hamels have been pitching, it's too close to call.
Advantage: Push
Bullpens:
The Rockies have had some issues with their bullpen of late, but if they're up in the ninth inning, Huston Street and his 35 saves is waiting to come in and close the game out. Street only blew two saves all season, and though one came just last week against the Brewers, the Rockies still managed to win the game. Street has been one of the best closers in the National League all season, striking out 70 and walking only 13 batters in 61.2 innings. The biggest question for the Rockies is how to get to Street in the bullpen. Franklin Morales, Manny Corpas and Matt Daley have really had issues in the last month, and with Alan Embree not coming back for the playoffs, the Rockies are going to be shorthanded if their starting pitching falters against the Phillies.
Of course, no one has had a more interesting bullpen this year than the Phils. Brad Lidge went from being perfect in 2008 to blowing 11 saves this year. Now, no one is sure who the closer is going to be, as Ryan Madson wasn't able to get it done in that role, and Brett Myers still isn't ready to take on the position. Odds are, it's going to be Lidge as the closer in the NLDS. Lidge hasn't just been bad this year...he's had one of the worst relief seasons in history. His ERA is one hell of a credit score, but for pitching, it doesn't work so well. His confidence seems to go out the window every time he lets someone get on base and he's throwing his slider too early in the count, allowing batters to sit on his fastball and get hits. The only problem is that the Phillies have no one else to take the job. Madson is a great eighth inning pitcher, and is going to have to stay there, now that the Phillies are going to be without Jamie Moyer, J.C. Romero and Chan Ho Park for this series. The rest of the bullpen isn't that hot, either. Chad Durbin walked 47 batters in 69.2 innings, and Scott Eyre has "floating bodies" in his pitching elbow, meaning he could be shut down at any time. Tyler Walker and Kyle Kendrick are pretty much the best options out of the bullpen for long or middle relief options right now, and that's scary for any Phillies fan.
This one isn't even close. Even with the struggles that the Rockies have had in the bullpen lately, the Phillies have had issues all year. At least Colorado has a closer.
Advantage: Rockies
Managers:
Jim Tracy took over for Clint Hurdle in Colorado just 46 games into the season, and turned the Rockies from a team that was ten games under .500 into a 92 win playoff team. He's gotten the youngsters to gel with the veterans and has a very good pressence in the Colorado dugout. He seems to know what to do at the right times, and is on the shortlist for National League Manager of the Year. He's led the Rockies to a 74-42 record since he took over, which is one of, if not the, best mark in baseball since that time. The players like him and believe in what he's saying, which is the most important thing when you replace a manager in the middle of the season.
Charlie Manuel is Charlie Manuel. That's pretty much the best way to describe him. Sure, he's never going to know how to successfully pull off a double switch, and he's as stubborn as a brick wall when it comes to certain players, but the team and the fans love him and believe in him. He's not the sharpest baseball mind out there, but he knows what has to be done, and takes a very workman's like attitude towards it. You could see it last year, as the Phillies kept saying that there was more that had to be done until they won the World Series. It was the same attitude this year. Yes, they celebrated when they clinched the National League East, but you could tell that there was more that had to be done. The Phillies haven't looked sharp since that game, so it's going to be up to Charlie to get them to turn it around. Yes, there are flashier managers in the playoffs this year, but I think this team would take Charlie over any of them.
Advantage: Phillies
Prediction: Overall, I think this is going to be a very close series. The key for the Phillies will be getting solid outings from their starting pitching, while having the bullpen limit the number of heart attacks they cause. For the Rockies, their lineup is going to have to figure out how to hit the left handed pitchers that the Phillies are going to throw out there. Both teams have players with postseason experience, so that shouldn't be much of a factor. In the end, I think the Phillies manage to get it done with a couple of good offensive showings, and a solid effort by the starting pitchers
Phillies in 4
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