Well, here we are again. Just like last year's playoffs, it comes down to the Phillies and the Dodgers in the NLCS for the right to go to the World Series. While the Dodgers took the season series from the Phillies and have home field advantage this year, I do think that the Phillies have the overall edge. I do think it's going to be a very tight series, as these are the two best teams, both performance and record wise, in the National League. So, let me break down this year's NLCS for you.
Offense:
Offensively, the Phillies will continue to attack the Dodgers with their big bats. Though they only hit four home runs in the NLDS against the Rockies, the Phils hit .296 as a team, with only Pedro Feliz and Jimmy Rollins hitting under .300 in the starting lineup. Ryan Howard had a solid NLDS, and showed that he can be the clutch performer that everyone in Philadelphia wants him to be with that two run double in Game Four Monday night. Chase Utley has looked great in the playoffs so far, as have Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez. The Phillies have also shown a great deal of patience at the plate in the postseason, working 19 walks in four games. They're going to have to continue that trend against the Dodgers, though their pitchers are more disciplined than the Rockies were. The Phillies are also going to have to use their team speed against the Dodgers, much like they did against Colorado. Russell Martin doesn't have the best throwing arm in the world, as he allowed 74 stolen bases during the regular season.
For the Dodgers, their offense is still based around Manny Ramirez. Even with his 50 game suspension this year, Manny still makes that team go, though the younger Dodgers have certainly stepped up this year. Andre Ethier has emerged as a true star in the National League, hitting 31 home runs and driving in 106 runs, while also picking up a talent for walk off hits. Matt Kemp helped him out by smacking 26 home runs and driving in 101. They also have James Loney, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake and Ronnie Belliard, who they picked up late in the season from Washington. Russell Martin seems to have taken a step back this season, but he still can be an offensive force. Of course, there's still Manny. When he gets hot, he can carry a team, much like he did with the Dodgers last season. So far in the playoffs, Manny only has two RBI, but he picked up three hits in the series clinching win against St. Louis, so he might be heating up. The rest of the Dodgers offense was solid, but not spectacular, against the Cardinals. Furcal and Ethier led the way, but Loney, Kemp and Martin all struggled, with none of those three hitting above .250 for the series. Against the Phillies, Manny isn't going to be able to do it by himself. The Phils will pitch around him, just like they did last year, if the rest of the offense can't produce. Furcal is going to need to get on base, and Kemp and Loney are going to need to step up.
I would give the Dodgers the edge on their bench players. Los Angeles boasts Juan Pierre, Jim Thome, Mark Loretta and Orlando Hudson, all of whom could start if they were playing for another team. Pierre filled in for Manny during his suspension, and though he's starting to get up there in age, he still stole 30 bases for the season. His speed off the bench could be something to look out for. Thome is basically Los Angeles' answer for Matt Stairs, only with more production. He can pop one out at any point, and will more than likely be looked at for a few key pinch hitting situations during this series.
Even with the depth on the Dodgers' bench, I still think the Phillies have the better offense. Unlike St. Louis, the Dodgers aren't going to be able to pitch around the middle of the Philadelphia lineup. The Phils have more than just Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez all hit over 30 home runs this year, and if Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino can set the table, it could get painful in a hurry for Los Angeles.
Advantage: Phillies
Starting Rotation:
Cole Hamels will more than likely be pitching Game One for the Phillies, who hopefully aren't going to throw lefty after lefty out there against Los Angeles. The Dodgers hit .272 against left handed pitching during the regular season, so trotting out all left handers like they did against Colorado probably won't have the same effect this time around. Through his career, Cole has pitched well against the Dodgers, including a complete game shutout earlier this season, and two wins in the NLCS last season. In two starts against Los Angeles this year, Cole went 1-1, but only allowed one earned run and struck out 14 in 16 innings of work. After Cole, the rotation will get a little trickier for the Phillies, who will more than likely start either J.A. Happ or Joe Blanton in Game Two. Happ only pitched a third of an inning against the Dodgers this season, while Blanton pitched six innings against Los Angeles on June 6th, striking out five and allowing one run. Pedro Martinez might also get the call to start in this series if Charlie Manuel wants Happ to come out of the bullpen for this series. Pedro didn't face the Dodgers this season, but he is a big game pitcher, and there's only one stage bigger than the NLCS. Then, there's Cliff Lee. Lee didn't face the Dodgers this year either, as the season series was already finished by the time he was traded. However, if he pitches the way he did against the Rockies, then the Dodgers will certainly have a problem. Lee is a lefty, though, and if he can't control the plate, a high average team like Los Angeles could present a serious issue for someone like him. Hopefully, he can pitch the way he did in the NLDS.
The Dodgers seem to be assembling the starting rotation of the 2004 Phillies, as both Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla pitched for them in the NLDS. It looks like both could go again in the NLCS, with Wolf possibly pitching Game One against Hamels. Wolf had a very solid season, despite only picking up 11 wins. He held opponents under .230 at the plate and struck out 160 batters in 214 innings. He didn't pitch well in his first playoff start, getting knocked out in the fourth inning after allowing two runs on six hits, but the Dodgers still won the game. In two games against the Phillies this year, Wolf was 1-1. He shut the Phils down in his first start, then got shelled the next time they saw him. For Padilla, most people didn't expect him to even make a start in the NLDS, and then he went out and threw seven shutout innings in the clinching game against the Cardinals. He's pitched well for the Dodgers since being picked up, going 5-0 with an ERA under 3.50. Padilla has been a pleasant surprise for the Dodgers, who needed the extra pitching help. In between the former Phillies, Clayton Kershaw looks to be locked into the rotation for Los Angeles. Despite an 8-8 record during the regular season, Kershaw was very good, striking out 185 batters and holding opponents to a .200 batting average for the season. He hasn't had much success against the Phillies, losing his two starts against them this year, but if he's pitching well, he can be unhittable.
The big question for the Dodgers is their fourth starter. They would more than likely want Hiroki Kuroda to be able to pitch, since he has always pitched well against the Phillies, and picked up the lone win for Los Angeles in last year's NLCS. The other option that the Dodgers have, if Kuroda is not healthy, is Chad Billingsley, who went from the penthouse to the outhouse so quickly, I don't think he even had time to pack. Billingsley had a horrible second half of the season, and ended up in the bullpen for Los Angeles. The Phillies had success against him last year as well, and I would certainly prefer to see him have to start a game rather than Kuroda.
When you put it together for the starters, I like the one-two punch of Hamels and Lee over whatever the Dodgers can throw out there. Los Angeles might have a more balanced rotation, but in the playoffs, it's more about the top of the rotation than anything else.
Advantage: Phillies
Bullpens:
Despite the woes for the Phillies during the regular season in the bullpen, the guys out there did a very good job against the Rockies in the NLDS. Granted, a lot of the work was done by starters coming out of the bullpen, but it was a good job regardless. Chad Durbin looked solid, Scott Eyre was clutch, Ryan Madson had one bad inning in Game Four, but that was it, and Brad Lidge saved two games without giving up a run. I'm not saying that this is going to be the return of the 2008 Brad Lidge, but at least he's gotten the high pressure playoff save under his belt again. I do have to give Charlie Manuel credit for sticking with him in the postseason. I know I've called for Lidge's head a few times this year, but if he keeps this up, everyone in Philadelphia will love him again. In this series, the Phillies might be looking at the return of Chan Ho Park, which would be a welcome sight, as he pitched very well out of the bullpen during the second half of the season. Either J.A. Happ or Pedro Martinez will more than likely be in the bullpen as well, giving the Phillies the long relief man that was missing when Jamie Moyer went down.
The Dodgers have one of, if not the, best bullpen remaining in the playoffs. The addition of George Sherrill at the trade deadline wasn't a blockbuster move, but it was huge. Since his arrival in Los Angeles, Sherrill allowed two runs in 27.1 innings. His ERA with the Dodgers in the regular season was 0.65. Los Angeles knew what they were doing when they picked this guy up. He's been a great bridge to Jonathan Broxton, who had a solid season as the closer for Los Angeles. Broxton saved 36 out of 44 games, and struck out 114 batters in just 74 innings. He is a fireballer, and someone the Phillies are going to want to avoid seeing during the series. He doesn't make many mistakes, but when he does, he can give up a big inning. The rest of the Dodger bullpen is solid as well. Hong-Chih Kuo, Ronald Belisario, Jeff Weaver, Guillermo Mota and Ramon Troncoso are all good pitchers out of that bullpen that could give the Phillies problems.
The Phillies can get to the Los Angeles starters, but their bullpen is another story. It's almost like a double-edged sword for the Phils. If they chase the starter, they had better hope they've done enough damage, because they might not score again for the rest of the game.
Advantage: Dodgers
Managers:
There isn't really much to compare here. Charlie Manuel is Charlie Manuel. He's stubborn and wants things done his way, but the players love him. He makes questionable choices from time to time, like the pitching situation in Game Two of the NLDS, but it seems like he makes the right call most of the time.
Then, there's Joe Torre. That's pretty much all that has to be said. The man makes the playoffs every year, and while he does have the benefit of managing teams that are on the higher end of the payroll scale, that doesn't mean a whole lot if they don't have good leadership. Torre is pretty much the poster boy for what a good manager should be. He makes the right calls, never gets rattled by any situation, and seems to always be in the biggest moments of the year. I love Charlie and what he's done with the Phils, but even I can't pick against Joe Torre.
Advantage: Dodgers
Prediction: Much like the NLDS against the Rockies, I expect this to be a close series. The Phillies are going to need to at least work a split in Los Angeles in the first two games, or the Dodgers will be able to roll into Philadelphia with all the momentum. Cliff Lee isn't going to be pitching until Game Three, more than likely, so the pressure is going to be on Cole Hamels to get the Phils off to a good start. These two teams are very evenly matched, and one or two big plays could easily shift the series in one direction or the other. With that being said, I think the Phillies, with their strong lineup and solid one-two pitching punch, can take out the Dodgers. Los Angeles is going to be playing for revenge, and is a year older and more experienced than last year, but sometimes, that doesn't matter.
Phillies in 6
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