For the third straight year, the Philadelphia Phillies have reached the National League Championship series. Also for the third straight year, the Phils will be playing a team from the National League West, but this time out, it's not the Dodgers. The San Francisco Giants got the honor of retiring Bobby Cox when they took out the Atlanta Braves in four games, and now, the Phillies and Giants will face off, with the winner headed to the World Series. If the Phillies can win this series, they will become the first National League team to win three straight NLCS meetings since the 1942-1944 St. Louis Cardinals.
The Giants aren't just going to roll over and die, however. Their offense might have some questions, but there's a reason that most fans didn't want the Phillies to play San Francisco in a best of five series, and that's the pitching staff that the Giants can trot out there. If there's a team that can match the Phillies and their big three, it's the Giants. Just like the Reds, this is a dangerous team to play against if you catch them at the wrong time.
Offense:
Despite what was considered a down season for them, the Phillies still put up solid numbers at the plate during the regular season. Ryan Howard led the way with another 30 home run, 100 RBI season, and he was backed up well by Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez, the only two position players that didn't miss time this year due to injury. Werth and Ibanez each drove in over 80 runs this year, and Werth scored over 100 runs for the first time in his career. Chase Utley missed time due to injury, but still hit 16 home runs and drove in 65 in just 115 games. Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins provided the speed on the basepaths, with Victorino stealing 34 bases and Rollins swiping 17. However, Rollins has been slowed by a sore hamstring that still seemed to bother him during the NLDS against the Reds. Placido Polanco led the team in hits, but has been fighting an elbow injury that gives him good days and bad days.
In the NLDS, the Phillies weren't really about hitting for power as they were getting timely hits and taking advantage of the mistakes by the Reds. The Phils scored six unearned runs in three games against Cincinnati and walked ten times. As a result, the team batting average was just .212, not good at all, but when you throw in the circumstances, it does start to look a little better. Ryan Howard and Chase Utley led the team in batting average, each hitting .273 during the series, while Carlos Ruiz quietly did what he does best, and that's reach base. Ruiz did so at a .500 clip against the Reds, which is a great number to see from your number eight hitter. Ruiz is turning the lineup over and making sure that the Phillies will get the bats they need up to drive in runs. Jayson Werth, Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco struggled, with Werth striking out five times and the three of them driving in a combined one run. Rollins still has that leg injury, and Polanco missed the first game of the series, but those three really need to step up against San Francisco. That Giants pitching staff can shut down even the best hitters, and that means everyone on the team is going to have to play well.
The Phillies have some decent bench depth this year, which is something they normally don't have going into the playoffs. Ben Francisco, Domonic Brown, Mike Sweeney and Wilson Valdez are all solid bench players, with Francisco, Brown and Sweeney all capable of hitting a pitch out of the park if they need to. Both Francisco and Valdez have at least a little bit of speed, something that the Phils should try and use against the Giants. Buster Posey has a good arm, but he did allow 39 stolen bases in 80 games at catcher this year. That's something that the Phillies need to try and take advantage of. Victorino and Werth need to get on base and cause trouble on the basepaths. The San Francisco pitching staff can't always pay attention to the batter if someone is dancing off of first base.
As for the Giants at the plate, their offense does leave a little to be desired. While they do have some pop in their bats, especially with Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, Buster Posey and Juan Uribe, their batting average as a team during the regular season was just .257. To be fair, the Phillies hit just .260, but they did so with injuries ravaging the team every time you turned around. That's not to say that the Giants can't score runs. In fact, they are quite capable of doing so. Burrell has turned his career around in San Francisco, and Posey might be the front-runner for the National League Rookie of the Year award, and for good reason. In just 108 games this year, Posey hit .305 with 18 home runs and 67 RBI. When you stretch that over a full season, he clearly would have led the Giants in almost every major offensive category. The kid is just that good. With Huff, Burrell, Uribe and a slumping Pablo Sandoval backing him up, the heart of the San Francisco lineup isn't awe inspiring, but it's got talent. Andres Torres is pretty much their only basestealing threat, having stolen 26 bases during the regular season.
The offense didn't look much better in the playoffs, hitting at the same .212 clip that the Phillies did against the Reds. The major differences were the number of strikeouts (43 for the Giants, 14 for the Phillies), and the fact that the Giants recorded their numbers in a four game series, rather than the sweep that the Phillies recorded. That difference in strikeouts is staggering, however. The Phillies are normally a free swinging club, but the Giants put them to shame against the Braves. Atlanta does have strikeout pitchers, but then again, so do the Phillies, so it should be interesting to see what happens in that matchup. Buster Posey led the team in batting against the Braves, hitting .375, but the rest of the lineup, save for a surprising Cody Ross, looked just like they did during the regular season. Pat Burrell had just two hits, with one of them being a three run home run in Game Two, while Andres Torres, Freddie Sanchez and Juan Uribe looked just as lost at the plate as Placido Polanco, Jimmy Rollins and Jayson Werth did for the Phillies. Torres stole one of the two bases that the Giants swiped during the series, but he was also caught twice. If he continues with that, the Giants will have no speed threats on the bases. People can run a little bit on Carlos Ruiz, but they have to pick their spots.
San Francisco has a couple of good veterans coming off of their bench in Edgar Renteria and Aaron Rowand. They also have Travis Ishikawa, Mike Fontenot Nate Schierholtz as well, if they need them. It isn't the best bench in the league, but it does matchup fairly well with the Phillies. Plus, Rowand still has a little pop in his bat, and Renteria can always be counted on to lay down a bunt or come up with a clutch hit.
In this matchup, the numbers don't lie. The Phillies and Giants hit almost the same amount of home runs this season, but the Phils outscored the Giants by over 70 runs. With that kind of difference, coupled with an almost totally healthy Phillies lineup, there's only one way that this edge is going.
Advantage: Phillies
Starting Pitching:
For the Phillies, their pitching begins and ends with their big three. Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels are starting to remind people of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz back when the Braves were making the playoffs every season, and that certainly is not a bad thing. When you also throw in the fact that the Phillies are 30-5 in games started by those three pitchers since July 31, and that Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay each threw complete game shut outs in the NLDS against the best offense in the National League, then that's something to look at.
Of course, not only was Halladay's complete game a shutout, but it was also just the second no-hitter in playoff history. Now, the fans shouldn't expect that each time out; it's just not possible. Also, Halladay struggled this year in his one start against the Giants, allowing five runs in seven innings on ten hits. However, that was all the way back in April, so to even consider something like that now is beyond useless. The way that Halladay has been pitching lately, he's going to be fine, and Hamels and Roy Oswalt are doing almost as well. Hamels completely banished the demons of last year's postseason with his Game 3 victory, and while Roy Oswalt struggled against the Reds in Game 2, he's still more than capable of putting together an outing just like Hamels and Halladay did. Not only that, but the Giants just can't match what the Reds brought to the plate, so Oswalt should be fine.
The wild card in all of this is Joe Blanton, who is more than likely going to get the start in Game 4 in San Francisco. Blanton hasn't pitched in a real game since October 3, and he hasn't made a start since September 29. That's a lot of time off for a pitcher, especially now that he's going to be called upon to make a start in possibly the biggest game of the season. The good thing for Blanton has been that as he's gone along this season, he's gotten better. His ERA in August was just 2.81, and in September he went 3-0 with an ERA of 3.19. That's the Joe Blanton that Phillies fans were expecting this season. He doesn't need to pitch that well against the Giants, but if he does, it would be a very, very good thing.
The Giants also bring their own big three to the mound in this series. Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez and Matt Cain helped shut down the Braves in the NLDS, with Sanchez being the only one of the three that even surrendered a run to Atlanta. Combined, the three San Francisco pitchers went 1-0, struck out 31 Braves and walked just four. Those are very, very good numbers no matter which way you look at them. Cain was statistically the best pitcher for the Giants, and he's not pitching until Game 3. Lincecum will get the start against Halladay tomorrow night in what should be a very, very good pitcher's duel. As for Jonathan Sanchez, he can have control issues, but they didn't show up against the Braves in the NLDS, as he struck out 11 and walked just one in seven and a third innings of work. He's going to have to do more against the Phillies, because if the Phils can be patient at the plate, they can make Sanchez work and throw more pitches, and that's when his control becomes a factor.
Just like Joe Blanton for the Phillies, the Giants have their own wild card in their pitching staff, only theirs has pitched in the playoffs this year. Madison Bumgarner won Game 4 against the Braves and looked good doing it, striking out five and walking one in six innings. He did allow a home run, but that was really the only flaw that he showed in that game. Bumgarner is just 21 years old, but he's shown a lot of potential this year, and the Giants feel more comfortable with him on the mound than the former Cy Young Award winning Barry Zito, so that tells you enough right there. The kid isn't all there quite yet, and he can give up a big inning early in a game, which is when the Phillies would need to get to him.
One thing that you can be certain of is that this series is going to feature a lot of good starting pitching matchups. Those aren't always fun to watch, but they are entertaining in their own right. When you match up the Phillies' big three against the big three of the Giants, there isn't much difference at all. The series might just hinge on Game 4 and which pitcher can outduel the other. In that case, there still isn't really that much of an edge, because Joe Blanton does have more playoff experience and usually does show up for the big games. This one really is too close to call.
Advantage: Push
Bullpens:
There isn't that much to say about the Phillies' bullpen because honestly, they haven't been pitching that much lately. In the NLDS against the Reds, the Phillies only needed four innings out of their bullpen, and Jose Contreras, J.C. Romero, Chad Durbin, Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge all did their jobs very well. Lidge has been especially good as the season wound down, saving 17 of 18 games in August and September while posing a 0.76 ERA. No, that's not a typo. Just like Cole Hamels, Brad Lidge is looking more and more like the 2008 version of himself again. That's just what the Phillies need right now, and that's what they're getting. Madson isn't pitching quite as well, but he's been back as the Bridge to Lidge once again. What that means is that the Phillies are going to need the same type of effort that they got in the NLDS from Romero, Contreras and Durbin. Those three are honestly going to be the glue in this bullpen against the Giants, and when they're called upon, they're going to have to deliver.
The San Francisco bullpen did see a little more action than the Phillies in the NLDS, but they weren't as sharp. Brian Wilson saved two of the three San Francisco wins, but also blew the save in Game 2, which was the only game that the Braves won in the series. He bounced back nicely after that, though, saving the next two games and looking more like the pitcher who closed out 48 games during the regular season. When you throw in Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo, Ramon Ramirez and Javier Lopez, the Giants have a very solid bullpen. The good thing for the Phillies is that out of those pitchers, only Lopez is a lefty, so that could play into their favor and make the Giants adjust who they throw out there at certain times. It's certainly going to make things interesting.
Despite some of the struggles that the Giants had in the bullpen against the Braves in the NLDS, it's hard to ignore their overall body of work this season. San Francisco had one of the best bullpens in the National League, and Brian Wilson was damn near lights out all season long. Lidge has looked very, very good lately, but when you stack up the rest of the Philadelphia bullpen against what the Giants have out there, it doesn't quite match up.
Advantage: Giants
Managers:
Charlie Manuel is starting to get used to managing this far into October. For the third straight season, Manuel has guided the Phils to the NLCS, and this season might have been his best work yet. He pieced together a team that was ravaged by injury and still managed to get them back into the playoffs, with the best record in baseball. Now, having the pitching staff that he has might have had something to do with it, but people have to finally start acknowledging what Charlie has done for this team. He's not the smartest manager in the world, and he makes moves sometimes that leave fans scratching their heads, but he's got the passion and the drive that makes Philadelphia love him. Plus, when it comes down to it, he always seems to get the job done in the clutch.
It took him four years in San Francisco, but Bruce Bochy got the Giants back into the playoffs for the first time since the Dusty Baker era. Bochy did a fine job this year as well, using his excellent pitching and guiding players that other teams didn't want and turning them into a contender at least a year before people thought they would be ready. Bochy has also been down this road before, having led the San Diego Padres into the playoffs four different times, even getting them to the World Series back in 1998. His last two years in San Diego were highlighted by the Padres not being able to get over the hump in the NLDS, but he doesn't have to worry about that now. Bochy is a solid manager, though he too can make some questionable moves at times.
Bochy has been to the World Series, but Charlie's been to the last two, and won back in 2008. Charlie knows that his team isn't finished yet, and the mindset of the Phillies matches the mindset of their manager.
Advantage: Phillies
Prediction:
This series will be won or lost on how well the big three pitchers for each team do against each other. If one of them struggles, they will need their offense to step up, and with who each team is throwing out there, that might not be possible. The biggest question mark in the pitching matchups is going to be Game 4, when Joe Blanton takes on Madison Bumgarner. Either team could take that game, or it could very well be another duel between two pitchers. Regardless, the Phillies are going to need to take advantage of every chance that they get against the Giants, just like they did against the Reds in the NLDS. When someone makes a mistake either on the mound or in the field, the Phils need to jump on it and not look back. The same goes for the Giants when they're at the plate as well. While both teams might not be hurt from losing the first game of this series, it's going to carry a lot of weight at least through Game 2. That being said, the Phillies just seem like they have too much on offense, even for the San Francisco starting pitching.
Phillies in 6
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