Friday, October 1, 2010

So, who do you want the Phillies to play?

The last weekend of baseball's regular season is here, and while the Phillies are assured of the best record in the National League, not much else has been decided in the Senior Circuit. Aside from the Cincinnati Reds finally taking care of business and winning the National League Central, the National League West and Wild Card are still up for grabs. Sure, they're both almost decided, but nothing is set in stone yet.

With that in mind, the Phillies will have one of three possible opponents for the NLDS when it starts next Wednesday. The Braves, who are leading the National League Wild Card race, are out of the equation, since divisional opponents can not face each other in the first round of the playoffs. So, that leaves the Cincinnati Reds, San Francisco Giants or San Diego Padres all left with chances to face the Phils. Who would you rather face off against?

San Francisco Giants

The Case For:
What the Giants have in pitching, they lose when it comes to their offense. The San Francisco batting order has been a problem for a while now, and while it's been a little better this season, they've still had their struggles. Aubrey Huff leads the team in batting average, home runs and RBI, and the Giants rank right in the middle of baseball in terms of runs scored, batting average and on base percentage.

That's not to say that they don't have some pop, though. Buster Posey has a great chance to win Rookie of the Year, and that's saying something for a kid that's only played in 105 games this season. He's hit 17 home runs and driven in 66 in those 105 games, so it's safe to say that the Giants have found their catcher of the future. Former Tampa castoff Pat Burrell has found new life with the Giants, smacking 18 home runs and hitting .263 in 93 games with the Giants this season. You also can't forget about Huff, Juan Uribe and Andres Torres. Pablo Sandoval is having a down season, but he could go off at any time. However, the San Francisco offense has struggled at times during the season, and the Giants have relied on their pitching staff to get to where they are right now.

There's no edge in the regular season matchup, as the Giants and Phillies went 3-3 against each other in two series this year.

The Case Against:
The strength of the Giants can be summed up in one word: pitching. To expand upon that a little bit, look at the top four starters that the Giants have brought out there for much of the season. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Barry Zito have a combined 3.40 ERA and 750 strikeouts. While Lincecum struggled through part of the season, he's looked more and more like the man that's won the last two Cy Young Awards, and you could even argue that Matt Cain has had the best season on the San Francisco rotation. Cain has 25 quality starts and a WHIP of 1.06, which is fourth best in the National League. Just having Lincecum and Cain at the top of the rotation during a short series is scary, but when you add in Sanchez and Zito, the Giants have the ability to hold even the strongest offense down long enough to score enough runs for a win.

Jonathan Sanchez can still be wild at times, but he's also struck out 200 batters and has beaten the Phillies this season. Barry Zito has had moments this year that have reminded you of his great seasons in Oakland, and while it's doubtful that he's ever going to be that pitcher again, the fact remains that he can still be very, very good if needed in a best of five or best of seven series. That's not a bad fourth starter to have waiting around.

The San Francisco bullpen is almost as good as their starting rotation. Brian Wilson leads the National League in saves with 47 and boasts a 1.83 ERA and 92 strikeouts in 73.2 innings pitched this year. When you add in Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo, the Giants have the ability to make a game just six innings long. Casilla has seven wins out of the bullpen, while Romo has a WHIP of 0.98 and an ERA of 2.24. The Giants can also lean on Jeremy Affeldt, who can still pitch out of a jam, despite not having the best season this year.

This is one team that can shut the Phillies down on offense if the Philadelphia bats decide to go cold again. However, they have little playoff experience from their two biggest starting pitchers, and there was a time earlier this season when opponents were hitting off of Lincecum, so he is not unbeatable. With that being said, the Phillies would be much better off facing the Giants in a longer, seven game series, where they could get into the fourth starting pitching position and hope that Halladay, Hamels and Oswalt could take care of two of the big three that San Francisco has to offer. Pitching wins championships, and the Giants certainly have that aspect taken care of.

Odds of playing the Phillies in the NLDS: 8%
Odds of the Phillies winning the series: 60% (It's a best of five. You don't want to face Lincecum and Cain twice in a best of five, I don't care who you have pitching.)

San Diego Padres:

The Case For:
Let's be honest right off the bat. Without a small miracle happening, there's no way that the Padres are even going to make the playoffs. After the Phillies swept them at the end of August, the Padres crashed and burned, giving up their lead in the National League West to the Giants and losing the Wild Card spot to the Braves. With that all being said, there is still a chance that the Padres could end up as either the National League West or Wild Card winners, so they still have to be looked at.

Just like the Giants, the Padres have some weaknesses in their offense. To be more accurate, the San Diego offense consists of Adrian Gonzalez and then everyone else. Gonzalez is having another wonderful season out in San Diego, but he's the only person in that lineup that should even scare opposing pitchers, and they can pitch around him. Gonzalez is hitting .296 with 30 home runs and 98 RBI. To put that in comparison, no other Padre is hitting more than .279 and has hit more 13 home runs and 58 RBI. Miguel Tejada has helped somewhat since being traded from Baltimore, but he can't always back up Gonzalez. Opposing teams can pitch around him and not worry about what he can do at the plate, because there's no one else in that lineup that can even come close to him.

The Padres have the worst offense left out of any of the contenders in the National League. They rank near the bottom of Major League Baseball in runs scored, batting average and on base percentage, and they've gotten worse as the season has gone on. Against the Phillies in August, the Padres managed just three runs in three games, and that was against Joe Blanton, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt, meaning that they missed out on facing Roy Halladay.

San Diego didn't have much luck against the Phils this season, finishing 2-5 against them in seven games. They scored a grand total of 16 runs in those seven games.

The Case Against:
Once again, the Padres are very similar to the Giants in that their pitching staff is their best weapon. Their starting pitching is very good, with Mat Latos and Jon Garland leading the way with 14 wins each. At age 22, Latos has become the young ace of the staff, striking out 185 batters and posting a 2.92 ERA in 178.2 innings so far this season. Garland has been the solid veteran and Clayton Richard has turned his career around with a 13 win season. When you add into all of that the return of Chris Young, who is 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA in four starts since his almost season long stint on the disabled list, the Padres have the right arms to go toe to toe with any team in the National League.

The San Diego bullpen might also be the best in the National League this year. Heath Bell has saved 45 games and has a 1.86 ERA, but that's not even the best on the team. In fact, the Padres have five pitchers coming out of the bullpen with at least 30 innings pitched and an ERA under 2.00. That's five pitchers that can come in during a game if a starter has to leave early and help shut down the opposing offense. That's not something you want to have to face during a five game playoff series. Bell is also backed up by Mike Adams, who has 36 holds and a 1.80 ERA. That's the kind of set up man that you want coming out of the bullpen, and the Padres have him.

Quite simply, if San Diego had even one or two more bats in their lineup, they might be more of a threat in the National League. Their bullpen can shut down opposing lineups in the late innings, but their offense, save for Adrian Gonzalez, has been nothing all season long. Now, with just three games to play, the Padres need to sweep the Giants and have the Phillies take two of three from the Braves to even give them a shot at the National League West or the Wild Card. Anything short of that, and their season is over.

Hey, stranger things have happened.

Chances of playing the Phillies in the NLDS: 2%
Chances of the Phillies winning the series: 75%

Cincinnati Reds:

The Case For:
Out of the possible matchups in the first round, the Reds have the most questionable pitching out of the three teams. Cincinnati's starting rotation has Bronson Arroyo, who leads the team in wins with 17, and Johnny Cueto, the team leader in ERA at 3.64. Other than those two, no other Red has won more than eight games this season, and the pitcher that hit that number, Mike Leake, has been shut down for the season. The pitching staff has been fairly average throughout the season, save for Arroyo and Cueto, but the bullpen does have some life to it.

Francisco Cordero, despite a 4.00 ERA, has saved 38 games this season, and the Reds also managed to pick Arthur Rhodes up off the scrap heap and turn him back into a solid set up man. They also have Aroldis Chapman, who, if you haven't heard, threw a fastball at 105 miles per hour the other week. That's not a typo. That's the fastest pitch ever recorded in baseball history. Sure, the Phillies love to hit fastball pitchers, but you can't hit what you can't freaking see. Chapman has an historical arm, and the Phils might need to watch out for that.

The Reds also haven't had that much success against the Phillies this season. In their seven games against the Phils this year, the Reds went 2-5, with both their wins coming in Cincinnati. It should be noted that four of the five losses that the Reds had against the Phillies were in extra innings, so Cincinnati has played the Phillies tough this year, regardless of what the record says.

The Case Against:
What Cincinnati lacks in a great pitching staff, they make up for with one of the best offenses in baseball. The Reds have scored 777 runs this season, the most in the National League and the fourth most in all of baseball. Joey Votto is having an MVP season, hitting .323 with 37 home runs and 111 RBI, and the Reds have six starters with 15 or more home runs. Scott Rolen has enjoyed a career saving season, with his 20 home runs and 85 RBI being his best totals since the 2006 season with the St. Louis Cardinals. Plus, when you throw in the speed and power of Drew Stubbs, as well as the ability of Jonny Gomes, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips, the Reds have a lineup that can match the Phillies shot for shot.

The biggest weakness that the Reds have at the plate is that they do strikeout a lot. Over half of their strikeouts this season have come from those six sluggers that were already mentioned, and with Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels being some of the best strikeout pitchers in the game today, the Reds might have a little trouble against them in the playoffs. Plus, aside from Scott Rolen, the Reds have little to no playoff experience in their lineup. Bronson Arroyo has plenty on the mound, but a lot of the Reds are very young and have never seen the bright lights of a playoff series. That bodes well for whichever team faces them in the first round.

The Reds do have an experienced manager in Dusty Baker, however. Baker has led the Giants to the World Series, and got the Chicago Cubs to within a game of making it there, so he does know what it takes to make it deep into the playoffs. Personally, I think this is the matchup that the Phillies are going to end up with, and it's the one that I want them to have. Can they beat the Giants or Padres? Of course they can. But, they wouldn't have to face the pitching that either one of those teams has set up for the playoffs, and they wouldn't have to make a trip out to the West Coast, which would be nice as well.

Chances of playing the Phillies in the NLDS: 90%
Chances of the Phillies winning the series: 85%

So there you go. It's likely going to be the Phillies and Reds in the NLDS, and that's really the matchup that the Phillies want to have. Now, if they can take advantage of that and move on to the NLCS for the third straight year, things might get a little more interesting...

1 comment:

  1. Now, with just three games to play, the Padres need to sweep the Giants and have the Phillies take two of three from the Braves to even give them a shot at the National League West or the Wild Card. Anything short of that, and their season is over.

    Is that true? I thought that, if SD sweeps SF, then:
    1) If ATL wins 0 games, SD wins the tiebreaker 13-5 and takes NLW, and SF takes the WC and ATL goes home.
    2) If ATL wins 1 game, there is a 3-way tie and games #163 (SF/SD) and #164 (loser/ATL) take place for the NLW and WC respectively.
    3) If ATL wins 2 or 3 games, then they take WC and SF and SD play #163 for NLW.

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