For the third straight year, the Philadelphia Phillies have reached the National League Championship series. Also for the third straight year, the Phils will be playing a team from the National League West, but this time out, it's not the Dodgers. The San Francisco Giants got the honor of retiring Bobby Cox when they took out the Atlanta Braves in four games, and now, the Phillies and Giants will face off, with the winner headed to the World Series. If the Phillies can win this series, they will become the first National League team to win three straight NLCS meetings since the 1942-1944 St. Louis Cardinals.
The Giants aren't just going to roll over and die, however. Their offense might have some questions, but there's a reason that most fans didn't want the Phillies to play San Francisco in a best of five series, and that's the pitching staff that the Giants can trot out there. If there's a team that can match the Phillies and their big three, it's the Giants. Just like the Reds, this is a dangerous team to play against if you catch them at the wrong time.
Offense:
Despite what was considered a down season for them, the Phillies still put up solid numbers at the plate during the regular season. Ryan Howard led the way with another 30 home run, 100 RBI season, and he was backed up well by Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez, the only two position players that didn't miss time this year due to injury. Werth and Ibanez each drove in over 80 runs this year, and Werth scored over 100 runs for the first time in his career. Chase Utley missed time due to injury, but still hit 16 home runs and drove in 65 in just 115 games. Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins provided the speed on the basepaths, with Victorino stealing 34 bases and Rollins swiping 17. However, Rollins has been slowed by a sore hamstring that still seemed to bother him during the NLDS against the Reds. Placido Polanco led the team in hits, but has been fighting an elbow injury that gives him good days and bad days.
In the NLDS, the Phillies weren't really about hitting for power as they were getting timely hits and taking advantage of the mistakes by the Reds. The Phils scored six unearned runs in three games against Cincinnati and walked ten times. As a result, the team batting average was just .212, not good at all, but when you throw in the circumstances, it does start to look a little better. Ryan Howard and Chase Utley led the team in batting average, each hitting .273 during the series, while Carlos Ruiz quietly did what he does best, and that's reach base. Ruiz did so at a .500 clip against the Reds, which is a great number to see from your number eight hitter. Ruiz is turning the lineup over and making sure that the Phillies will get the bats they need up to drive in runs. Jayson Werth, Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco struggled, with Werth striking out five times and the three of them driving in a combined one run. Rollins still has that leg injury, and Polanco missed the first game of the series, but those three really need to step up against San Francisco. That Giants pitching staff can shut down even the best hitters, and that means everyone on the team is going to have to play well.
The Phillies have some decent bench depth this year, which is something they normally don't have going into the playoffs. Ben Francisco, Domonic Brown, Mike Sweeney and Wilson Valdez are all solid bench players, with Francisco, Brown and Sweeney all capable of hitting a pitch out of the park if they need to. Both Francisco and Valdez have at least a little bit of speed, something that the Phils should try and use against the Giants. Buster Posey has a good arm, but he did allow 39 stolen bases in 80 games at catcher this year. That's something that the Phillies need to try and take advantage of. Victorino and Werth need to get on base and cause trouble on the basepaths. The San Francisco pitching staff can't always pay attention to the batter if someone is dancing off of first base.
As for the Giants at the plate, their offense does leave a little to be desired. While they do have some pop in their bats, especially with Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell, Buster Posey and Juan Uribe, their batting average as a team during the regular season was just .257. To be fair, the Phillies hit just .260, but they did so with injuries ravaging the team every time you turned around. That's not to say that the Giants can't score runs. In fact, they are quite capable of doing so. Burrell has turned his career around in San Francisco, and Posey might be the front-runner for the National League Rookie of the Year award, and for good reason. In just 108 games this year, Posey hit .305 with 18 home runs and 67 RBI. When you stretch that over a full season, he clearly would have led the Giants in almost every major offensive category. The kid is just that good. With Huff, Burrell, Uribe and a slumping Pablo Sandoval backing him up, the heart of the San Francisco lineup isn't awe inspiring, but it's got talent. Andres Torres is pretty much their only basestealing threat, having stolen 26 bases during the regular season.
The offense didn't look much better in the playoffs, hitting at the same .212 clip that the Phillies did against the Reds. The major differences were the number of strikeouts (43 for the Giants, 14 for the Phillies), and the fact that the Giants recorded their numbers in a four game series, rather than the sweep that the Phillies recorded. That difference in strikeouts is staggering, however. The Phillies are normally a free swinging club, but the Giants put them to shame against the Braves. Atlanta does have strikeout pitchers, but then again, so do the Phillies, so it should be interesting to see what happens in that matchup. Buster Posey led the team in batting against the Braves, hitting .375, but the rest of the lineup, save for a surprising Cody Ross, looked just like they did during the regular season. Pat Burrell had just two hits, with one of them being a three run home run in Game Two, while Andres Torres, Freddie Sanchez and Juan Uribe looked just as lost at the plate as Placido Polanco, Jimmy Rollins and Jayson Werth did for the Phillies. Torres stole one of the two bases that the Giants swiped during the series, but he was also caught twice. If he continues with that, the Giants will have no speed threats on the bases. People can run a little bit on Carlos Ruiz, but they have to pick their spots.
San Francisco has a couple of good veterans coming off of their bench in Edgar Renteria and Aaron Rowand. They also have Travis Ishikawa, Mike Fontenot Nate Schierholtz as well, if they need them. It isn't the best bench in the league, but it does matchup fairly well with the Phillies. Plus, Rowand still has a little pop in his bat, and Renteria can always be counted on to lay down a bunt or come up with a clutch hit.
In this matchup, the numbers don't lie. The Phillies and Giants hit almost the same amount of home runs this season, but the Phils outscored the Giants by over 70 runs. With that kind of difference, coupled with an almost totally healthy Phillies lineup, there's only one way that this edge is going.
Advantage: Phillies
Starting Pitching:
For the Phillies, their pitching begins and ends with their big three. Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels are starting to remind people of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz back when the Braves were making the playoffs every season, and that certainly is not a bad thing. When you also throw in the fact that the Phillies are 30-5 in games started by those three pitchers since July 31, and that Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay each threw complete game shut outs in the NLDS against the best offense in the National League, then that's something to look at.
Of course, not only was Halladay's complete game a shutout, but it was also just the second no-hitter in playoff history. Now, the fans shouldn't expect that each time out; it's just not possible. Also, Halladay struggled this year in his one start against the Giants, allowing five runs in seven innings on ten hits. However, that was all the way back in April, so to even consider something like that now is beyond useless. The way that Halladay has been pitching lately, he's going to be fine, and Hamels and Roy Oswalt are doing almost as well. Hamels completely banished the demons of last year's postseason with his Game 3 victory, and while Roy Oswalt struggled against the Reds in Game 2, he's still more than capable of putting together an outing just like Hamels and Halladay did. Not only that, but the Giants just can't match what the Reds brought to the plate, so Oswalt should be fine.
The wild card in all of this is Joe Blanton, who is more than likely going to get the start in Game 4 in San Francisco. Blanton hasn't pitched in a real game since October 3, and he hasn't made a start since September 29. That's a lot of time off for a pitcher, especially now that he's going to be called upon to make a start in possibly the biggest game of the season. The good thing for Blanton has been that as he's gone along this season, he's gotten better. His ERA in August was just 2.81, and in September he went 3-0 with an ERA of 3.19. That's the Joe Blanton that Phillies fans were expecting this season. He doesn't need to pitch that well against the Giants, but if he does, it would be a very, very good thing.
The Giants also bring their own big three to the mound in this series. Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez and Matt Cain helped shut down the Braves in the NLDS, with Sanchez being the only one of the three that even surrendered a run to Atlanta. Combined, the three San Francisco pitchers went 1-0, struck out 31 Braves and walked just four. Those are very, very good numbers no matter which way you look at them. Cain was statistically the best pitcher for the Giants, and he's not pitching until Game 3. Lincecum will get the start against Halladay tomorrow night in what should be a very, very good pitcher's duel. As for Jonathan Sanchez, he can have control issues, but they didn't show up against the Braves in the NLDS, as he struck out 11 and walked just one in seven and a third innings of work. He's going to have to do more against the Phillies, because if the Phils can be patient at the plate, they can make Sanchez work and throw more pitches, and that's when his control becomes a factor.
Just like Joe Blanton for the Phillies, the Giants have their own wild card in their pitching staff, only theirs has pitched in the playoffs this year. Madison Bumgarner won Game 4 against the Braves and looked good doing it, striking out five and walking one in six innings. He did allow a home run, but that was really the only flaw that he showed in that game. Bumgarner is just 21 years old, but he's shown a lot of potential this year, and the Giants feel more comfortable with him on the mound than the former Cy Young Award winning Barry Zito, so that tells you enough right there. The kid isn't all there quite yet, and he can give up a big inning early in a game, which is when the Phillies would need to get to him.
One thing that you can be certain of is that this series is going to feature a lot of good starting pitching matchups. Those aren't always fun to watch, but they are entertaining in their own right. When you match up the Phillies' big three against the big three of the Giants, there isn't much difference at all. The series might just hinge on Game 4 and which pitcher can outduel the other. In that case, there still isn't really that much of an edge, because Joe Blanton does have more playoff experience and usually does show up for the big games. This one really is too close to call.
Advantage: Push
Bullpens:
There isn't that much to say about the Phillies' bullpen because honestly, they haven't been pitching that much lately. In the NLDS against the Reds, the Phillies only needed four innings out of their bullpen, and Jose Contreras, J.C. Romero, Chad Durbin, Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge all did their jobs very well. Lidge has been especially good as the season wound down, saving 17 of 18 games in August and September while posing a 0.76 ERA. No, that's not a typo. Just like Cole Hamels, Brad Lidge is looking more and more like the 2008 version of himself again. That's just what the Phillies need right now, and that's what they're getting. Madson isn't pitching quite as well, but he's been back as the Bridge to Lidge once again. What that means is that the Phillies are going to need the same type of effort that they got in the NLDS from Romero, Contreras and Durbin. Those three are honestly going to be the glue in this bullpen against the Giants, and when they're called upon, they're going to have to deliver.
The San Francisco bullpen did see a little more action than the Phillies in the NLDS, but they weren't as sharp. Brian Wilson saved two of the three San Francisco wins, but also blew the save in Game 2, which was the only game that the Braves won in the series. He bounced back nicely after that, though, saving the next two games and looking more like the pitcher who closed out 48 games during the regular season. When you throw in Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo, Ramon Ramirez and Javier Lopez, the Giants have a very solid bullpen. The good thing for the Phillies is that out of those pitchers, only Lopez is a lefty, so that could play into their favor and make the Giants adjust who they throw out there at certain times. It's certainly going to make things interesting.
Despite some of the struggles that the Giants had in the bullpen against the Braves in the NLDS, it's hard to ignore their overall body of work this season. San Francisco had one of the best bullpens in the National League, and Brian Wilson was damn near lights out all season long. Lidge has looked very, very good lately, but when you stack up the rest of the Philadelphia bullpen against what the Giants have out there, it doesn't quite match up.
Advantage: Giants
Managers:
Charlie Manuel is starting to get used to managing this far into October. For the third straight season, Manuel has guided the Phils to the NLCS, and this season might have been his best work yet. He pieced together a team that was ravaged by injury and still managed to get them back into the playoffs, with the best record in baseball. Now, having the pitching staff that he has might have had something to do with it, but people have to finally start acknowledging what Charlie has done for this team. He's not the smartest manager in the world, and he makes moves sometimes that leave fans scratching their heads, but he's got the passion and the drive that makes Philadelphia love him. Plus, when it comes down to it, he always seems to get the job done in the clutch.
It took him four years in San Francisco, but Bruce Bochy got the Giants back into the playoffs for the first time since the Dusty Baker era. Bochy did a fine job this year as well, using his excellent pitching and guiding players that other teams didn't want and turning them into a contender at least a year before people thought they would be ready. Bochy has also been down this road before, having led the San Diego Padres into the playoffs four different times, even getting them to the World Series back in 1998. His last two years in San Diego were highlighted by the Padres not being able to get over the hump in the NLDS, but he doesn't have to worry about that now. Bochy is a solid manager, though he too can make some questionable moves at times.
Bochy has been to the World Series, but Charlie's been to the last two, and won back in 2008. Charlie knows that his team isn't finished yet, and the mindset of the Phillies matches the mindset of their manager.
Advantage: Phillies
Prediction:
This series will be won or lost on how well the big three pitchers for each team do against each other. If one of them struggles, they will need their offense to step up, and with who each team is throwing out there, that might not be possible. The biggest question mark in the pitching matchups is going to be Game 4, when Joe Blanton takes on Madison Bumgarner. Either team could take that game, or it could very well be another duel between two pitchers. Regardless, the Phillies are going to need to take advantage of every chance that they get against the Giants, just like they did against the Reds in the NLDS. When someone makes a mistake either on the mound or in the field, the Phils need to jump on it and not look back. The same goes for the Giants when they're at the plate as well. While both teams might not be hurt from losing the first game of this series, it's going to carry a lot of weight at least through Game 2. That being said, the Phillies just seem like they have too much on offense, even for the San Francisco starting pitching.
Phillies in 6
Showing posts with label NLCS Preview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NLCS Preview. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
NLCS Preview: Phillies vs. Dodgers: I've seen this movie before
Well, here we are again. Just like last year's playoffs, it comes down to the Phillies and the Dodgers in the NLCS for the right to go to the World Series. While the Dodgers took the season series from the Phillies and have home field advantage this year, I do think that the Phillies have the overall edge. I do think it's going to be a very tight series, as these are the two best teams, both performance and record wise, in the National League. So, let me break down this year's NLCS for you.
Offense:
Offensively, the Phillies will continue to attack the Dodgers with their big bats. Though they only hit four home runs in the NLDS against the Rockies, the Phils hit .296 as a team, with only Pedro Feliz and Jimmy Rollins hitting under .300 in the starting lineup. Ryan Howard had a solid NLDS, and showed that he can be the clutch performer that everyone in Philadelphia wants him to be with that two run double in Game Four Monday night. Chase Utley has looked great in the playoffs so far, as have Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez. The Phillies have also shown a great deal of patience at the plate in the postseason, working 19 walks in four games. They're going to have to continue that trend against the Dodgers, though their pitchers are more disciplined than the Rockies were. The Phillies are also going to have to use their team speed against the Dodgers, much like they did against Colorado. Russell Martin doesn't have the best throwing arm in the world, as he allowed 74 stolen bases during the regular season.
For the Dodgers, their offense is still based around Manny Ramirez. Even with his 50 game suspension this year, Manny still makes that team go, though the younger Dodgers have certainly stepped up this year. Andre Ethier has emerged as a true star in the National League, hitting 31 home runs and driving in 106 runs, while also picking up a talent for walk off hits. Matt Kemp helped him out by smacking 26 home runs and driving in 101. They also have James Loney, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake and Ronnie Belliard, who they picked up late in the season from Washington. Russell Martin seems to have taken a step back this season, but he still can be an offensive force. Of course, there's still Manny. When he gets hot, he can carry a team, much like he did with the Dodgers last season. So far in the playoffs, Manny only has two RBI, but he picked up three hits in the series clinching win against St. Louis, so he might be heating up. The rest of the Dodgers offense was solid, but not spectacular, against the Cardinals. Furcal and Ethier led the way, but Loney, Kemp and Martin all struggled, with none of those three hitting above .250 for the series. Against the Phillies, Manny isn't going to be able to do it by himself. The Phils will pitch around him, just like they did last year, if the rest of the offense can't produce. Furcal is going to need to get on base, and Kemp and Loney are going to need to step up.
I would give the Dodgers the edge on their bench players. Los Angeles boasts Juan Pierre, Jim Thome, Mark Loretta and Orlando Hudson, all of whom could start if they were playing for another team. Pierre filled in for Manny during his suspension, and though he's starting to get up there in age, he still stole 30 bases for the season. His speed off the bench could be something to look out for. Thome is basically Los Angeles' answer for Matt Stairs, only with more production. He can pop one out at any point, and will more than likely be looked at for a few key pinch hitting situations during this series.
Even with the depth on the Dodgers' bench, I still think the Phillies have the better offense. Unlike St. Louis, the Dodgers aren't going to be able to pitch around the middle of the Philadelphia lineup. The Phils have more than just Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez all hit over 30 home runs this year, and if Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino can set the table, it could get painful in a hurry for Los Angeles.
Advantage: Phillies
Starting Rotation:
Cole Hamels will more than likely be pitching Game One for the Phillies, who hopefully aren't going to throw lefty after lefty out there against Los Angeles. The Dodgers hit .272 against left handed pitching during the regular season, so trotting out all left handers like they did against Colorado probably won't have the same effect this time around. Through his career, Cole has pitched well against the Dodgers, including a complete game shutout earlier this season, and two wins in the NLCS last season. In two starts against Los Angeles this year, Cole went 1-1, but only allowed one earned run and struck out 14 in 16 innings of work. After Cole, the rotation will get a little trickier for the Phillies, who will more than likely start either J.A. Happ or Joe Blanton in Game Two. Happ only pitched a third of an inning against the Dodgers this season, while Blanton pitched six innings against Los Angeles on June 6th, striking out five and allowing one run. Pedro Martinez might also get the call to start in this series if Charlie Manuel wants Happ to come out of the bullpen for this series. Pedro didn't face the Dodgers this season, but he is a big game pitcher, and there's only one stage bigger than the NLCS. Then, there's Cliff Lee. Lee didn't face the Dodgers this year either, as the season series was already finished by the time he was traded. However, if he pitches the way he did against the Rockies, then the Dodgers will certainly have a problem. Lee is a lefty, though, and if he can't control the plate, a high average team like Los Angeles could present a serious issue for someone like him. Hopefully, he can pitch the way he did in the NLDS.
The Dodgers seem to be assembling the starting rotation of the 2004 Phillies, as both Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla pitched for them in the NLDS. It looks like both could go again in the NLCS, with Wolf possibly pitching Game One against Hamels. Wolf had a very solid season, despite only picking up 11 wins. He held opponents under .230 at the plate and struck out 160 batters in 214 innings. He didn't pitch well in his first playoff start, getting knocked out in the fourth inning after allowing two runs on six hits, but the Dodgers still won the game. In two games against the Phillies this year, Wolf was 1-1. He shut the Phils down in his first start, then got shelled the next time they saw him. For Padilla, most people didn't expect him to even make a start in the NLDS, and then he went out and threw seven shutout innings in the clinching game against the Cardinals. He's pitched well for the Dodgers since being picked up, going 5-0 with an ERA under 3.50. Padilla has been a pleasant surprise for the Dodgers, who needed the extra pitching help. In between the former Phillies, Clayton Kershaw looks to be locked into the rotation for Los Angeles. Despite an 8-8 record during the regular season, Kershaw was very good, striking out 185 batters and holding opponents to a .200 batting average for the season. He hasn't had much success against the Phillies, losing his two starts against them this year, but if he's pitching well, he can be unhittable.
The big question for the Dodgers is their fourth starter. They would more than likely want Hiroki Kuroda to be able to pitch, since he has always pitched well against the Phillies, and picked up the lone win for Los Angeles in last year's NLCS. The other option that the Dodgers have, if Kuroda is not healthy, is Chad Billingsley, who went from the penthouse to the outhouse so quickly, I don't think he even had time to pack. Billingsley had a horrible second half of the season, and ended up in the bullpen for Los Angeles. The Phillies had success against him last year as well, and I would certainly prefer to see him have to start a game rather than Kuroda.
When you put it together for the starters, I like the one-two punch of Hamels and Lee over whatever the Dodgers can throw out there. Los Angeles might have a more balanced rotation, but in the playoffs, it's more about the top of the rotation than anything else.
Advantage: Phillies
Bullpens:
Despite the woes for the Phillies during the regular season in the bullpen, the guys out there did a very good job against the Rockies in the NLDS. Granted, a lot of the work was done by starters coming out of the bullpen, but it was a good job regardless. Chad Durbin looked solid, Scott Eyre was clutch, Ryan Madson had one bad inning in Game Four, but that was it, and Brad Lidge saved two games without giving up a run. I'm not saying that this is going to be the return of the 2008 Brad Lidge, but at least he's gotten the high pressure playoff save under his belt again. I do have to give Charlie Manuel credit for sticking with him in the postseason. I know I've called for Lidge's head a few times this year, but if he keeps this up, everyone in Philadelphia will love him again. In this series, the Phillies might be looking at the return of Chan Ho Park, which would be a welcome sight, as he pitched very well out of the bullpen during the second half of the season. Either J.A. Happ or Pedro Martinez will more than likely be in the bullpen as well, giving the Phillies the long relief man that was missing when Jamie Moyer went down.
The Dodgers have one of, if not the, best bullpen remaining in the playoffs. The addition of George Sherrill at the trade deadline wasn't a blockbuster move, but it was huge. Since his arrival in Los Angeles, Sherrill allowed two runs in 27.1 innings. His ERA with the Dodgers in the regular season was 0.65. Los Angeles knew what they were doing when they picked this guy up. He's been a great bridge to Jonathan Broxton, who had a solid season as the closer for Los Angeles. Broxton saved 36 out of 44 games, and struck out 114 batters in just 74 innings. He is a fireballer, and someone the Phillies are going to want to avoid seeing during the series. He doesn't make many mistakes, but when he does, he can give up a big inning. The rest of the Dodger bullpen is solid as well. Hong-Chih Kuo, Ronald Belisario, Jeff Weaver, Guillermo Mota and Ramon Troncoso are all good pitchers out of that bullpen that could give the Phillies problems.
The Phillies can get to the Los Angeles starters, but their bullpen is another story. It's almost like a double-edged sword for the Phils. If they chase the starter, they had better hope they've done enough damage, because they might not score again for the rest of the game.
Advantage: Dodgers
Managers:
There isn't really much to compare here. Charlie Manuel is Charlie Manuel. He's stubborn and wants things done his way, but the players love him. He makes questionable choices from time to time, like the pitching situation in Game Two of the NLDS, but it seems like he makes the right call most of the time.
Then, there's Joe Torre. That's pretty much all that has to be said. The man makes the playoffs every year, and while he does have the benefit of managing teams that are on the higher end of the payroll scale, that doesn't mean a whole lot if they don't have good leadership. Torre is pretty much the poster boy for what a good manager should be. He makes the right calls, never gets rattled by any situation, and seems to always be in the biggest moments of the year. I love Charlie and what he's done with the Phils, but even I can't pick against Joe Torre.
Advantage: Dodgers
Prediction: Much like the NLDS against the Rockies, I expect this to be a close series. The Phillies are going to need to at least work a split in Los Angeles in the first two games, or the Dodgers will be able to roll into Philadelphia with all the momentum. Cliff Lee isn't going to be pitching until Game Three, more than likely, so the pressure is going to be on Cole Hamels to get the Phils off to a good start. These two teams are very evenly matched, and one or two big plays could easily shift the series in one direction or the other. With that being said, I think the Phillies, with their strong lineup and solid one-two pitching punch, can take out the Dodgers. Los Angeles is going to be playing for revenge, and is a year older and more experienced than last year, but sometimes, that doesn't matter.
Phillies in 6
Offense:
Offensively, the Phillies will continue to attack the Dodgers with their big bats. Though they only hit four home runs in the NLDS against the Rockies, the Phils hit .296 as a team, with only Pedro Feliz and Jimmy Rollins hitting under .300 in the starting lineup. Ryan Howard had a solid NLDS, and showed that he can be the clutch performer that everyone in Philadelphia wants him to be with that two run double in Game Four Monday night. Chase Utley has looked great in the playoffs so far, as have Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez. The Phillies have also shown a great deal of patience at the plate in the postseason, working 19 walks in four games. They're going to have to continue that trend against the Dodgers, though their pitchers are more disciplined than the Rockies were. The Phillies are also going to have to use their team speed against the Dodgers, much like they did against Colorado. Russell Martin doesn't have the best throwing arm in the world, as he allowed 74 stolen bases during the regular season.
For the Dodgers, their offense is still based around Manny Ramirez. Even with his 50 game suspension this year, Manny still makes that team go, though the younger Dodgers have certainly stepped up this year. Andre Ethier has emerged as a true star in the National League, hitting 31 home runs and driving in 106 runs, while also picking up a talent for walk off hits. Matt Kemp helped him out by smacking 26 home runs and driving in 101. They also have James Loney, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake and Ronnie Belliard, who they picked up late in the season from Washington. Russell Martin seems to have taken a step back this season, but he still can be an offensive force. Of course, there's still Manny. When he gets hot, he can carry a team, much like he did with the Dodgers last season. So far in the playoffs, Manny only has two RBI, but he picked up three hits in the series clinching win against St. Louis, so he might be heating up. The rest of the Dodgers offense was solid, but not spectacular, against the Cardinals. Furcal and Ethier led the way, but Loney, Kemp and Martin all struggled, with none of those three hitting above .250 for the series. Against the Phillies, Manny isn't going to be able to do it by himself. The Phils will pitch around him, just like they did last year, if the rest of the offense can't produce. Furcal is going to need to get on base, and Kemp and Loney are going to need to step up.
I would give the Dodgers the edge on their bench players. Los Angeles boasts Juan Pierre, Jim Thome, Mark Loretta and Orlando Hudson, all of whom could start if they were playing for another team. Pierre filled in for Manny during his suspension, and though he's starting to get up there in age, he still stole 30 bases for the season. His speed off the bench could be something to look out for. Thome is basically Los Angeles' answer for Matt Stairs, only with more production. He can pop one out at any point, and will more than likely be looked at for a few key pinch hitting situations during this series.
Even with the depth on the Dodgers' bench, I still think the Phillies have the better offense. Unlike St. Louis, the Dodgers aren't going to be able to pitch around the middle of the Philadelphia lineup. The Phils have more than just Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez all hit over 30 home runs this year, and if Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino can set the table, it could get painful in a hurry for Los Angeles.
Advantage: Phillies
Starting Rotation:
Cole Hamels will more than likely be pitching Game One for the Phillies, who hopefully aren't going to throw lefty after lefty out there against Los Angeles. The Dodgers hit .272 against left handed pitching during the regular season, so trotting out all left handers like they did against Colorado probably won't have the same effect this time around. Through his career, Cole has pitched well against the Dodgers, including a complete game shutout earlier this season, and two wins in the NLCS last season. In two starts against Los Angeles this year, Cole went 1-1, but only allowed one earned run and struck out 14 in 16 innings of work. After Cole, the rotation will get a little trickier for the Phillies, who will more than likely start either J.A. Happ or Joe Blanton in Game Two. Happ only pitched a third of an inning against the Dodgers this season, while Blanton pitched six innings against Los Angeles on June 6th, striking out five and allowing one run. Pedro Martinez might also get the call to start in this series if Charlie Manuel wants Happ to come out of the bullpen for this series. Pedro didn't face the Dodgers this season, but he is a big game pitcher, and there's only one stage bigger than the NLCS. Then, there's Cliff Lee. Lee didn't face the Dodgers this year either, as the season series was already finished by the time he was traded. However, if he pitches the way he did against the Rockies, then the Dodgers will certainly have a problem. Lee is a lefty, though, and if he can't control the plate, a high average team like Los Angeles could present a serious issue for someone like him. Hopefully, he can pitch the way he did in the NLDS.
The Dodgers seem to be assembling the starting rotation of the 2004 Phillies, as both Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla pitched for them in the NLDS. It looks like both could go again in the NLCS, with Wolf possibly pitching Game One against Hamels. Wolf had a very solid season, despite only picking up 11 wins. He held opponents under .230 at the plate and struck out 160 batters in 214 innings. He didn't pitch well in his first playoff start, getting knocked out in the fourth inning after allowing two runs on six hits, but the Dodgers still won the game. In two games against the Phillies this year, Wolf was 1-1. He shut the Phils down in his first start, then got shelled the next time they saw him. For Padilla, most people didn't expect him to even make a start in the NLDS, and then he went out and threw seven shutout innings in the clinching game against the Cardinals. He's pitched well for the Dodgers since being picked up, going 5-0 with an ERA under 3.50. Padilla has been a pleasant surprise for the Dodgers, who needed the extra pitching help. In between the former Phillies, Clayton Kershaw looks to be locked into the rotation for Los Angeles. Despite an 8-8 record during the regular season, Kershaw was very good, striking out 185 batters and holding opponents to a .200 batting average for the season. He hasn't had much success against the Phillies, losing his two starts against them this year, but if he's pitching well, he can be unhittable.
The big question for the Dodgers is their fourth starter. They would more than likely want Hiroki Kuroda to be able to pitch, since he has always pitched well against the Phillies, and picked up the lone win for Los Angeles in last year's NLCS. The other option that the Dodgers have, if Kuroda is not healthy, is Chad Billingsley, who went from the penthouse to the outhouse so quickly, I don't think he even had time to pack. Billingsley had a horrible second half of the season, and ended up in the bullpen for Los Angeles. The Phillies had success against him last year as well, and I would certainly prefer to see him have to start a game rather than Kuroda.
When you put it together for the starters, I like the one-two punch of Hamels and Lee over whatever the Dodgers can throw out there. Los Angeles might have a more balanced rotation, but in the playoffs, it's more about the top of the rotation than anything else.
Advantage: Phillies
Bullpens:
Despite the woes for the Phillies during the regular season in the bullpen, the guys out there did a very good job against the Rockies in the NLDS. Granted, a lot of the work was done by starters coming out of the bullpen, but it was a good job regardless. Chad Durbin looked solid, Scott Eyre was clutch, Ryan Madson had one bad inning in Game Four, but that was it, and Brad Lidge saved two games without giving up a run. I'm not saying that this is going to be the return of the 2008 Brad Lidge, but at least he's gotten the high pressure playoff save under his belt again. I do have to give Charlie Manuel credit for sticking with him in the postseason. I know I've called for Lidge's head a few times this year, but if he keeps this up, everyone in Philadelphia will love him again. In this series, the Phillies might be looking at the return of Chan Ho Park, which would be a welcome sight, as he pitched very well out of the bullpen during the second half of the season. Either J.A. Happ or Pedro Martinez will more than likely be in the bullpen as well, giving the Phillies the long relief man that was missing when Jamie Moyer went down.
The Dodgers have one of, if not the, best bullpen remaining in the playoffs. The addition of George Sherrill at the trade deadline wasn't a blockbuster move, but it was huge. Since his arrival in Los Angeles, Sherrill allowed two runs in 27.1 innings. His ERA with the Dodgers in the regular season was 0.65. Los Angeles knew what they were doing when they picked this guy up. He's been a great bridge to Jonathan Broxton, who had a solid season as the closer for Los Angeles. Broxton saved 36 out of 44 games, and struck out 114 batters in just 74 innings. He is a fireballer, and someone the Phillies are going to want to avoid seeing during the series. He doesn't make many mistakes, but when he does, he can give up a big inning. The rest of the Dodger bullpen is solid as well. Hong-Chih Kuo, Ronald Belisario, Jeff Weaver, Guillermo Mota and Ramon Troncoso are all good pitchers out of that bullpen that could give the Phillies problems.
The Phillies can get to the Los Angeles starters, but their bullpen is another story. It's almost like a double-edged sword for the Phils. If they chase the starter, they had better hope they've done enough damage, because they might not score again for the rest of the game.
Advantage: Dodgers
Managers:
There isn't really much to compare here. Charlie Manuel is Charlie Manuel. He's stubborn and wants things done his way, but the players love him. He makes questionable choices from time to time, like the pitching situation in Game Two of the NLDS, but it seems like he makes the right call most of the time.
Then, there's Joe Torre. That's pretty much all that has to be said. The man makes the playoffs every year, and while he does have the benefit of managing teams that are on the higher end of the payroll scale, that doesn't mean a whole lot if they don't have good leadership. Torre is pretty much the poster boy for what a good manager should be. He makes the right calls, never gets rattled by any situation, and seems to always be in the biggest moments of the year. I love Charlie and what he's done with the Phils, but even I can't pick against Joe Torre.
Advantage: Dodgers
Prediction: Much like the NLDS against the Rockies, I expect this to be a close series. The Phillies are going to need to at least work a split in Los Angeles in the first two games, or the Dodgers will be able to roll into Philadelphia with all the momentum. Cliff Lee isn't going to be pitching until Game Three, more than likely, so the pressure is going to be on Cole Hamels to get the Phils off to a good start. These two teams are very evenly matched, and one or two big plays could easily shift the series in one direction or the other. With that being said, I think the Phillies, with their strong lineup and solid one-two pitching punch, can take out the Dodgers. Los Angeles is going to be playing for revenge, and is a year older and more experienced than last year, but sometimes, that doesn't matter.
Phillies in 6
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