Has there been a more up and down season in recent Phillies history than this year? Sure, 2007 featured an historical comeback, but the Phillies weren't supposed to do as much that year, and they got a career year from Jimmy Rollins. This year, the Phillies were coming off of back to back trips to the World Series and had added Roy Halladay in the offseason. Quite simply, anything short of another trip to the World Series was going to be seen as a disappointment.
Back in July, that disappointment looked very, very close. The Phils were sitting at 48-46, seven games back of the Atlanta Braves, and they were closer to fourth place than they were to first place. Two months, and a 50-25 second half record later, the Phillies finished the regular season with the best record in baseball for the first time in team history. Cole Hamels put any doubts about his showing last year to rest, Roy Halladay is the front-runner for the Cy Young Award and Roy Oswalt came over right before the trade deadline, giving the Phillies three legit aces in their starting rotation. The gameplan was to make them almost unstoppable in a short playoff series, and that's what they have in front of them.
The Cincinnati Reds are making their first playoff appearance since the 1995 season. Yes, it's been that long for the Reds, who won 90 games for the first time since the 1999 season. Dusty Baker has merged the young talent in Cincinnati with a few veteran players, and that's made the Reds a very dangerous team to play against. How do they stack up to the Phillies?
Offense:
If there is one place where the Reds have an advantage on almost any team in the playoffs, it's at the plate. Cincinnati led the National League in runs scored, home runs, RBI, batting average and slugging percentage. Quite simply, the Reds have the best offense in the National League. MVP candidate Joey Votto is the leader on offense, as he led the team in just about every major offensive category, but the offense for the Reds doesn't stop there. Cincinnati boasts six starters with 15 or more home runs, three with 80 or more RBI and four that hit over .275 for the season. Aside from Votto, the Reds have benefited from Scott Rolen's resurgence this season, as well as Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs, who each hit over 20 home runs this year.
Make no mistake about it, the Reds are loaded on offense. Aside from Rolen, Votto, Bruce and Stubbs, Cincinnati also has Brandon Phillips, Jonny Gomes and Orlando Cabrera to help balance out the batting order. Stubbs is also a speed threat, stealing 30 bases on the season while only being caught six times. Votto had the most success against the Phillies this season, hitting almost .400 with three home runs and six RBI in the seven games the two teams played against each other. Cincinnati hit .267 as a team against the Phils, with most of the other position players struggling a little against the Philadelphia pitching staff. That bodes well for the Phillies, who added Roy Oswalt since they last played the Reds.
The Reds may have the best offense in the National League, but the Phillies aren't that far off. The Phils struggled at the plate at times this year, and didn't put up the same numbers that fans are getting used to, but they still finished second to the Reds in runs scored during the regular season, and were fifth in batting average and home runs and third in RBI, so the difference is very small. Only Carlos Ruiz hit over .300 for the season, just making it with a .302 average, but he was one of the most productive players for the Phillies in the second half. Ryan Howard missed some time due to injury, but still managed to hit over 30 home runs and 100 RBI once again, while Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez were the most consistent batters throughout the whole season. Werth finished with 27 home runs and a .296 average, while Ibanez had 16 home runs and a .276 average. Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley were most affected by injury, as Rollins missed almost half the season, and Utley lost almost 50 games on the disabled list. Utley managed to bounce back with a decent season, but Rollins struggled, despite his 17 stolen bases. Shane Victorino was third on the team with 18 home runs and he also stole 34 bases, and I haven't even mentioned Placido Polanco, who led the team in hits and didn't even play against the Reds during the regular season.
The biggest edge that the Phils have against the Reds at the plate is the number of strikeouts that the Reds seem to rack up. In the seven games these two played against each other this year, the Reds struck out 57 times, compared to just 39 for the Phillies. That's why, despite a .230 average against Cincinnati this year, the Phillies won five of the seven games. For the Reds to beat the Phillies in this series, they're going to have to control themselves at the plate, and it doesn't look like they can.
Advantage: Push
Starting Pitching:
For all the good that the Reds have done at the plate this season, their starting pitching has tried to undo it. It's not that Cincinnati has a bad pitching staff, but when you stack it up against the Phillies, it just doesn't compare right now. The Reds are going with Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto in the first three games against the Phils, and only Cueto has pitched against the Phils this year. With that being said, he's done quite well, picking up a win in two starts with an ERA under 2.00. Volquez has only started 12 games this season, and has a 4-3 record and a 4.31 ERA. Volquez has still looked like a solid strikeout pitcher, but he's going to have to work against the Phillies, who can be patient at the plate when they want to be, especially against pitchers in the playoffs. Arroyo did lead the Reds in wins during the regular season, but he also gave up 29 home runs during the year, the most of any Cincinnati pitcher. Out of the three starters that Dusty Baker has announced, Arroyo is the only one with postseason experience, and that came back in 2004 with the Red Sox out of the bullpen.
The Reds did pitch well against the Phillies during the two series this year, but they did so with pitchers that aren't going to be starting in this series. Mike Leake pitched twice against the Phils, but is shut down for the season, and Travis Wood almost pitched a perfect game in his start, but Dusty Baker doesn't like to play younger players in these situations. Volquez and Arroyo are going to be facing the Phillies for the first time, which might help them the first time through the lineup, but after that, it's going to be an advantage for the Phillies.
As for the Phillies, their starting rotation in this series can be summed up in two letters and one number: H20. Roy Halladay will be pitching in Game 1, Roy Oswalt will go in Game 2, and Cole Hamels will be pitching in Game 3. Halladay got tagged for a loss against the Reds earlier this year, but he pitched very well in two games against them, giving up just four runs in 17 innings while striking out 19 and walking just one. That's the kind of pitcher that you want throwing in Game 1, no matter the situation. Roy Oswalt has been outstanding since joining the Phils, going 7-1 with an ERA of 1.74. He also boasts an outstanding record against the Reds, going 23-3 against them during his career. Two of those losses came this year, but they came while Oswalt was with the Astros, and Houston scored a grand total of two runs in those two games. Meanwhile, Cole Hamels showed everyone that his performance last season was a fluke. Despite only winning 12 games, Hamels had an ERA of 3.06 and struck out 211 batters. If not for poor run support during the season, Cole is being mentioned in the same breath as Roy Halladay for the Cy Young Award. That's good company right there.
The Phils have issues with their starting pitching after the three aces, but they've arranged the NLDS so only Halladay, Hamels and Oswalt will need to start. They have a combined ERA this season of 2.76. The first three starters for Cincinnati have an ERA of 3.94, with only Bronson Arroyo having playoff experience. That's all you need to know about the starting pitching in this series.
Advantage: Phillies
Bullpens:
While the Reds are lacking a little bit in the starting rotation, they do have strength out of the bullpen. Cincinnati has four left handers that they can use against the Phillies, including rookie Aroldis Chapman, who can throw the ball at 105 miles per hour. They also boast Arthur Rhodes, Travis Wood, and Bill Brey. When you throw them in with the rest of the bullpen, which includes closer Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati does have a solid bullpen that can shut down the Phils in the later innings. The trick is how they are going to get there against the Philadelphia offense. Nick Masset had a solid year for the Reds as well out of the bullpen, but as a right hander, he might not see as much time in this series as the four lefties will. The Reds are going to need to work to their advantages as much as they can, and in the later innings, having four left handers that can throw against the Phils will be good for them. Even so, Chapman has never faced the Phillies, and Rhodes suffered his first loss of the season against Philadelphia, so the Phils might be able to work some runs past them anyway.
The Philadelphia bullpen has two pitchers that really matter right now, and they're Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge. Quite simply, if the starting rotation can do their job against the Reds, then Madson and Lidge will be the only two relief pitchers that the Phillies will have to bring out in the NLDS, and that will be a good thing. If the starters struggle, however, things might get a little more interesting. Jose Contreras has been the best relief pitcher for the Phils throughout the season, but he's shown signs of wearing down lately, and you never know what you're going to get out of him when he does come into the game. Aside from Contreras, the Phillies are bringing Joe Blanton, J.C. Romero, Chad Durbin and Antonio Bastardo with them for the NLDS. Bastardo is a hard throwing left hander that can make clutch outs when he needs to. He did that against the Rockies in the NLDS last year, so he has playoff experience. Romero has struggled a bit for most of this season, and hasn't been the same set up man that the Phillies managed to pick up back in 2008. Even with that being said, he still held his own for most of 60 games this season, which is all you can expect from a man that walks as many batters as he strikes out. Durbin slowed down at the end of the year, and while Blanton is usually a starter, he'll be called upon in an emergency role if needed in the NLDS. Blanton has pitched better as the season has gone on, but I doubt if any Phillies fan will enjoy seeing him in against the Reds.
If the Phillies can keep the bullpen to just Madson and Lidge, then they'll be great. If they can't, then things are going to get interesting in a hurry.
Advantage: Reds (for the lefties that they have)
Managers:
Dusty Baker has been down this road before. He guided the San Francisco Giants to within six outs of the 2002 World Series, and had the Chicago Cubs closer to the National League pennant than they've been since 1945. The only problem is that he doesn't know how to finish things off. The Giants choked away Game 6 of the 2002 World Series, while the Cubs got to blame Steve Bartman for the 2003 NLCS loss. The only common factor in both of those series was Dusty Baker. Baker is a good manager, and he gets the most out of his team, but something seems to be holding him back from getting to the promised land.
At this point, Philadelphia fans know what they are going to get out of Charlie Manuel, but this year, he may have done his best managing job yet. He had this team pick themselves up by the boostraps and guided them to the best record in baseball. Was it his prettiest showing? No, not even close, but it sure as hell was effective. Manuel might not be the best manager in baseball, and he probably never will be, but what he's done with this Phillies team this year has to move him further up the rankings in terms of best managers in baseball and best managers in Phillies history. Yeah, he's getting close to the top in that second list.
Advantage: Phillies
Prediction: This series will come down to the starting pitching, as funny as that sounds. As long as the Phillies can get good outings from Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels in two of the first three games, then there will be nothing to worry about. If two of those three struggle, or the Cincinnati bullpen is able to stop a late comeback attempt, then things might get a little more interesting. The Reds do have the best offense in the National League, which is going to pose a challenge for the Phillies, but they've gone through good offenses before in the NLDS. Cincinnati also just looked happy to make the playoffs, which is a sign that they might not be ready quite yet. If you give the Reds a year or two more, then they'll be set for a deep playoff run. For now, it doesn't look like they have enough against a Phillies team that is looking for their second World Series title in three years.
Phillies in 4
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