The champagne still hasn't dried in the visiting locker room, and apparently, there might still be a few fires burning out in San Francisco, but the 2010 baseball season is over. For the first time since 1954, the San Francisco Giants are World Series champions, and to get there, they had to get past the Philadelphia Phillies, who had won the last two National League pennants, and looked like they were on their way to a third before the Giants took them out.
Hats off to the Giants. They were the better team this year. Regardless of record, as far as I'm concerned, the better team is the one that wins when it matters the most. The Phillies couldn't do it, and they had to watch someone else celebrate for the second year in a row. For a team that's made so many big moves over the last 12 months, it can't be sitting well with them, and it shouldn't be. The only problem is now there's even more questions going into the 2011 season than there were at this same point last year. CSNPhilly.com has reported that Davey Lopes will not be back next year, so he joins the likes of J.C. Romero and apparently Greg Dobbs and Jamie Moyer as Phillies who will not be with the team next season.
Pitching is key for next year.
There are still some good things to look at coming out of this season. The Phillies will still have Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt as their top three pitchers next season, with Joe Blanton a likely fourth, making for a solid starting rotation. Blanton was horrible in the first half of the year, but settled down at the end and was looking more like the pitcher he'd been in his first two seasons with the Phils. Halladay, Hamels and Oswalt could all be number one pitchers on another team, but the Phillies have all three of them. It's a good feeling there, considering two years ago, the Phils were hanging their hopes on Hamels, Jamie Moyer and Brett Myers.
The back of the bullpen will still be there as well. Brad Lidge showed at the end of the season that he can still turn the clock back to the 2008 season, and Ryan Madson has become one of the best setup men in baseball. Without Romero, the Phillies will need to find a left handed setup man, and those can be few and far between. The Phils will likely look inward, towards Antonio Bastardo or Mike Zagurski to take Romero's role, but neither has been tested in a big game situation yet. However, sometimes the best cure for that is a trial by fire. Chad Durbin is also a free agent, as is Jose Contreras. Contreras might be brought back for another one year deal after a solid season with the Phillies, but I'm not sure about Durbin right now. With Durbin, you either had good days or bad days, and near the end, the bad days were becoming more common than the good ones. There's some work that needs to be done with the bullpen.
Then, there's the big question:
What about Jayson Werth?
Werth's power numbers may have been down this year, but he was still a productive member of the offense, and one of two position players not to spend any time on the disabled list this season. After two and a half seasons of starting with the Phils, Werth has earned his way to one big payday in his career, and while the Phillies might get a little bit of a discount, Werth is likely going to get offered a Jason Bay type contract from last season, meaning he might fall out of the price range for the Phillies. Would I like the Phillies to bring Werth back? Of course I would. He fits this team well, and plays well at the plate and in the field. He had major issues this year with runners in scoring position, and he does strike out a lot, but he's been a great right handed bat in the middle of the lineup for the past two and a half seasons.
That right there is the biggest key. Jayson Werth is a right handed bat in a heavy left handed offense. The Giants picked apart Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez during the NLCS, and while Werth struggled as well, he was still able to make pitchers think twice about pitching around him or making a bad pitch. The first option that the Phillies would likely look at would be to resign Werth. If that can't happen, then they would move to Plan B, which would be to put Domonic Brown out in right field. Brown was great in the minor leagues this year, but in his limited playing time with the Phils, he struggled, hitting just .210 and striking out 24 times in 62 at bats. He's still got a hole in his swing that big league pitchers can get at and exploit, and it might actually be better to have him go back to Triple A for a little bit to start the 2011 season and use Ben Francisco in right field if they have to. Francisco isn't a great option out in right, but he's a solid player and can be good at times. He's not Jayson Werth, but not many people are right now. Werth is likely the third best free agent on the market this offseason, behind Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford.
Will Werth be back? It would be great if he is, but I doubt it. The Phillies will likely make him an offer, but it's not going to be enough to bring him back with open arms. The Red Sox, Yankees and Angels will probably outbid the Phillies, who are still trying to claim a self enforced salary cap for next season. Werth has been a great member of this team, and I hate to see him go, especially after what he's done in the last three years, but I just don't see him coming back. Whichever team misses out on Crawford is going to jump at Werth, and they'll give him more money than the Phillies want to pay out. It's going to suck, but that's the most likely outcome of this situation. It's nothing that the Phillies did, but they still want to claim that they don't have the deep pockets of the big boys in baseball, and this time, it's going to bite them in the ass.
Answer: Werth will be a Yankee/Red Sox/Angel next season.
Aside from Werth, the offense will be back, and in some cases that's a good thing. Placido Polanco just had surgery on his elbow, but he should be ready to go by Spring Training, and Carlos Ruiz might be the most underrated catcher in all of baseball. Even with his playoff struggles, Ryan Howard is the big bat in the middle of the lineup. Shane Victorino shouldn't be going anywhere in center field, either. That leaves a few questions at the other positions.
Questions on offense.
The biggest question mark is probably Jimmy Rollins, who, despite being the face of the Phillies for the last half decade, looks like he's already peaked. Rollins will turn 32 at the end of November, and ever since his MVP season in 2007, he's gone downhill each and ever year. This year, Rollins dealt with injuries almost all season and never got on track. There's a chance that he could improve again next year, but his contract is up at the end of next season, and 2011 might be his last as a Phillie. Ruben Amaro might even try and see what the trade market is for Rollins, just due to how Wilson Valdez played in his place this year. Is Valdez a valid replacement for Rollins? Of course not, but after two seasons of hitting .250 or below with an on base percentage of less than .330, it might be time to start looking for another shortstop.
Chase Utley isn't in the same boat as Rollins, but he might be right next to it. Utley is probably the greatest second baseman in Phillies history, but this past season was his worst since 2004. Like Rollins, Utley will be 32 before next season starts, and his defense in the playoffs over the past two seasons has just been horrible. People will give Utley a pass this season because of the injury that he suffered, and they should, but they also need to keep in mind that he's played hurt the last couple of seasons and still hit 30 home runs. His peak may not have come and gone yet, but there's a part of me that thinks his best years might be behind him. There's no way that the Phillies will ship Utley out any time soon, but after this last season and his showing in the playoffs, the spotlight is going to be even brighter in 2011. Utley is going to have to perform at his best, but hopefully he can do that. I hate knocking Chase, I really do.
Then, there's Raul Ibanez, who is 38 going on 39 in the middle of 2011. Ibanez was the other Phillie position player to stay healthy this season, and he had a decent year, but his numbers were down from 2009, and his defense is becoming more and more of a factor. The Phillies might like to move Ibanez, but he's owed big money in the final year of his contract, so he's not going anywhere. At 38, Ibanez still played well, hitting 16 home runs and driving in over 80 runs, but he wasn't the same player that he was last year. He looked slower at the plate and in the field at times, and struck out over 100 times, which isn't uncommon for him, but hurt his power numbers even more. His 16 home runs were less than half of what he hit back in 2009, and it might mean that the power is leaving him after a good part of his career. He's still going to be productive in 2011, but how much the Phillies get out of him is another story.
In case you didn't notice, I'm really not that worried about the pitching staff. They did fine through the second half of the season and the playoffs. It's the offense that worries me. When the chips were down this year, they couldn't get it done at the plate. In 2008 and 2009, they did what they had to do, and they could even say the same for the later part of the 2007 season. This year, the San Francisco Giants shut down the Philadelphia offense and made them look silly in clutch situations. All you have to do is look at the last pitch of the season. Ryan Howard struck out looking on a 3-2 pitch. That's all you need to know right there. If the offense doesn't improve next season, and with the age increases and the potential loss of Jayson Werth, it likely won't, things could be the same next year.
Plus, the rest of the National League East is starting to catch up to the Phillies. The Atlanta Braves were in first place for most of the year before fading in September and clinching the Wild Card. They aren't a fluke, and they'll be back next season as well. Throw in the Florida Marlins and the New York Mets, who aren't going to take back to back losing seasons lying down, and the Phillies have some competition going into 2011 that hasn't been there in recent years. Remember, that lead that the Phils had at the end of this season was due to not only a great September by the Phillies, but a poor end of the season by the Braves. When you look at all the numbers, the two teams should have been much, much closer than they ended up.
Is the run for the Phillies done?
Is the window closed for the Phillies? Not yet, but it looks like it's starting to shut on this current generation. In the last three years, the Phillies have won the World Series, lost the World Series and then lost the NLCS. While it's the best run in Phillies history, it also shows that the rest of the National League is catching back up with them. Two years ago, this lineup was compared to one in the American League: that is, they had no weaknesses. Now, you can pick and choose your battles, and with Jayson Werth being a free agent, there is no right handed bat for this team. Can they still make another run or two with what they have? Of course they can. It just won't be as easy.
CSNPhilly.com: Lopes will not return next year.
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