It took the American League a little bit longer to crown a champion, but now everything is signed, sealed, delivered and ready to go. After 162 regular season games and two rounds of playoff baseball, the defending champion Philadelphia Phillies will be taking on the New York Yankees for the World Series championship.
I wish I could say this series is going to be easy for the Phillies, I really do. I can't say that, though. Last year, I knew that the Phils were going to win. All you had to do was look at how Tampa Bay celebrated beating Boston in the ALCS. That was their World Series. This year, the Yankees know that they're not done until they get to the top. It's the same attitude the Phillies have had the last two postseasons, and it's going to make this series one of the best in the last decade.
You can throw out the matchup between the Phillies and the Yankees in late May, too. Yes, the Phillies took two out of three that weekend, but so much has changed since then. Alex Rodriguez had been back for all of two weeks, and was still struggling with his hip injury, C.C. Sabathia wasn't the same pitcher he has been since the All Star break, and Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez weren't playing for the Phillies yet. Truth be told, that series might as well be looked at as one that happened last year. It's good that the Phils managed to take two out of three from the Yankees, but all that relates to now is the overall standings. Either way, the World Series starts Wednesday night, so let me break it down for you.
Offense:
For the Phillies, their offense is, and seems it always will be, based around their power game. Ryan Howard was the hottest hitter for either team in the NCLS, and his MVP award tells that story. Aside from a certain third baseman for the Yankees, no one has been as hot during the playoffs as the big man. Howard is hitting .355 with two home runs and 14 RBI in the nine games that the Phillies have played so far, but he's not alone. Shane Victorino leads the team in postseason batting, hitting .361 with three home runs and seven RBI of his own, while Carlos Ruiz isn't exactly a Philadelphia secret anymore. Carlos is batting .346 with a home run and seven RBI, and killed Los Angeles pitching during the NLCS. The Yankees can't ignore his bat out of the eight hole, or he'll continue to rake, just like he did against the Dodgers. Chase Utley hasn't had many RBI chances, but he has been getting on base, and while Jayson Werth only had four hits in the NLCS, three of them were home runs. Meanwhile, Jimmy Rollins, Raul Ibanez and Pedro Feliz have struggled a bit during the playoffs, but even they have all come through with at least one clutch hit so far.
The Phillies are going to have to use their speed more than they have so far in the playoffs, as well. The Yankees did a good job keeping the Angels in check on the basepaths, though most of that had to do with the fact that Bobby Abreu and Chone Figgins were next to useless at the plate. Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino are going to have to do a better job than those two did if the Phillies want to have a shot in this series. So far, the Phils have only stolen six bases, and that's going to have to change against the Yankees. C.C. Sabathia has a good move to the plate, and Andy Pettitte is pretty much the best pickoff artist in baseball, but they still have to take their chances when they get them.
As for the Yankees, their offense pretty much revolves around one person right now. Alex Rodriguez has found a new gear so far in these playoffs, hitting .438 with five home runs and 12 RBI in nine games. It seems like the playoff Rodriguez of old is gone, and that might have something to do with him missing the first month and a half of the season this year. If you look at the last three times the Yankees made the playoffs with Rodriguez, he averaged almost 700 plate appearances in those three years. This year, he only had 535 plate appearances. It's fairly obvious that his body is still fresher than it has been in recent trips to the playoffs. In fact, this is the first time he's played in less than 130 games in the regular season since 1999, so it could just be that he needed a little extra rest. He's not as young as he used to be, and he was coming off of major hip surgery, so perhaps the time off has his body still in September, rather than October. As for the rest of the Yankees, the usual suspects are still there, though the offense has really struggled so far in the playoffs. Of course, Derek Jeter is still leading the way, hitting .297 with three home runs and five RBI, and Melky Cabrera has been a surprise out of the nine spot, batting .314 with four RBI. The rest of the Yankee lineup hasn't been up to their regular season talent, especially Nick Swisher and Mark Teixeira, who are hitting a combined .165 with one home run and six RBI. However, this is a Yankee lineup that can break out at any time. Eight of their nine starters had 20 or more home runs during the regular season, and that short porch they have in right field is very inviting for any hitter. All it could take is a few good swings, and all of a sudden, that offense is up and running again.
The Yankees also have some speed on the basepaths that they're going to want to use to their advantage as well. Derek Jeter led the team with 30 steals, and Brett Gardner swiped 26 bags of his own. While New York doesn't have as many 20+ basestealers as the Phillies, they did manage to steal 111 bases while only being caught 28 times on the season. That comes out to a success rate of 80%, which is just one percent behind Philadelphia's 81% success rate. Needless to say, the battle on the basepaths could be something that sets the tone for the series.
For the overall offense, while the Yankees were kings in the regular season, they haven't had the same pop in the playoffs. Right now, it comes down to Alex Rodriguez against Ryan Howard, and both of them have been pretty damn even. The same is pretty much true with the rest of the lineups. The most positive thing for the Phillies is the fact that this year, they won't have to start Eric Bruntlett in Yankee Stadium when the lineup includes a DH. That job now falls on Ben Francisco. Even with Francisco, these are the two best lineups in baseball, and they're too close to call.
Advantage: Push
Starting Rotation:
Both of these teams need to send thank you cards to Cleveland for their pitchers in Game One. Both C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee were teammates in Cleveland last season. The Indians traded Sabathia to the Brewers at the trade deadline last year, and he made his way to New York in the offseason. This year, the Indians dealt Cliff Lee to the Phillies at the trade deadline, and both have been excellent so far in the playoffs. In three starts for the Phillies, Lee has been lights out, going 2-0 with a 0.74 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 24.1 innings of work. He's been everything that the Phillies have needed him to be, and more. Behind Lee, the rotation hasn't been as strong, but it's gotten the job done. Pedro Martinez, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton will likely make up the rest of the rotation, with the only question being who will start Games Two and Three. If I had a choice, I would put Pedro on the mound for Game Two. Not only has he pitched better than Cole so far during the playoffs, but he has experience pitching against the Yankees in big games. He's done it as a member of the Red Sox, and his seven shutout innings against the Dodgers make me believe that he can do it again. Cole hasn't been the same pitcher he was last year during the playoffs. He doesn't have the same zip on his fastball, and he's leaving pitches up in the zone, which is making them easy targets for talented hitters. If he does that against the Yankees, they will eat him alive. The Phillies know what they are going to get out of Joe Blanton, and that's about it. He's a solid fourth starter who can sometimes pull a gem out of his hat. Usually, he's going to give the Phillies six strong innings with three or four runs coming across the plate. If he can do that against New York, I think most Phillies fans, myself included, would be happy.
With the Yankees closing out the Angels last night and avoiding a Game Seven, they now have the luxury of starting C.C. Sabathia three times during the World Series. Personally, I don't blame them if they do. So far in the playoffs, Sabathia has been the ace the Yankees needed, winning three games and striking out 20 in 22.2 innings of work. His 1.19 ERA is a tiny bit higher than Cliff Lee's, but is nothing to be worried about. The Yankees were careful with Sabathia down the stretch this year, as they didn't want to burn him out like the Brewers had to do last season. His 230 regular season innings are his lowest in the last three years, and it's showed so far in the playoffs, as he's been able to remove the demons of the last two postseasons. Behind Sabathia, the Yankees have a decent set of starting pitchers. A.J. Burnett is solid, but his 4.42 ERA is one of the highest on New York's playoff roster. He has talent, but can be wild at times, and it's come through a little bit this postseason with four hit batters in the playoffs so far. The Phillies have seen Burnett plenty of times, both with Florida and Toronto, so it's not like they don't know what he's going to throw at them. Meanwhile, Andy Pettitte is the most experienced starter left in the playoffs, and he has done everything the Yankees have needed him to do during this postseason. His 2.37 ERA ranks just behind Sabathia and Lee in terms of starters, and he's struck out 15 batters against only three walks. When you think of the Yankees in the playoffs, you think of Pettitte on the mound in a big game, and that's what he gives that team. He didn't have the best regular season, but regular season stats don't matter when you get to the playoffs. Since New York won last night, it's likely these are the only three starters that the Phillies are going to see.
Both these teams are familiar with the opposing ace. Cliff Lee spent all of his career in the American League before he was traded to the Phillies, and C.C. Sabathia faced the Phils in the NLDS last season, with less than stellar results. The Yankees have hit Lee around a little bit in his starts against them, but the way these two are pitching, it's going to come down to who is pitching behind them. When you stack it up, Pedro/Hamels/Blanton vs. Burnett/Pettitte, there isn't much to set them apart. All five of those pitchers have playoff experience, and you don't get much more big game than Pedro Martinez and Andy Pettitte. Much like the offenses, the starting rotations are damn close.
Advantage: Push
Bullpens:
Like I just said a few minutes ago about the starting pitchers: regular season stats don't mean a thing in the playoffs. Brad Lidge couldn't have saved a Little League game at the end of the regular season, and blew two saves against the Yankees during the regular season, but is three for three with a win and an ERA of 0.00 during the playoffs. He's gotten out of some tough situations, and has done exactly what has been asked of him so far in the playoffs. He's not the Brad Lidge of 2008. I don't think that's ever going to happen again, but he does look better than the Brad Lidge of the 2009 regular season. He's gotten some of his confidence back, and it's showing now. If only he could give some of that to Ryan Madson. The "Bridge to Lidge" has been less than stellar, and his 4.50 ERA is the third worst in the bullpen. He's given up eight hits and four walks in six innings of work, and is going to have to get better, or else the Yankees are going to eat him alive. New York is a team that plays until the last out, much like the Phillies, so the bullpen is going to have to be on top of its game during this series. J.A. Happ has also struggled in the short time he's pitched during the playoffs, with a 7.36 ERA and five walks so far. Luckily, Scott Eyre and Chad Durbin have been lights out, allowing just one earned run in 6.1 combined innings. While Lidge certainly has some of his swagger back, if the moment comes, I'm sure Charlie Manuel will turn to Eyre, Happ or Durbin to start the ninth inning, if need be.
For the Yankees, there is only one name that you need to know in their bullpen: Mariano Rivera. The man has been closing games in New York since 1997, and is the name that you think of when you mention closers in the playoffs. So far this year, it's been more of the same for Rivera, who has allowed just one run and struck out 11 in 10.2 innings of work. He's saved all three games that he has been called in to finish, including a two out save against the Angels last night. Joe Girardi isn't going to be afraid to bring him in if the Phillies have a scoring chance late in the game, and he can pitch just as well to lefties as he can to righties. Basically, the Yankee bullpen begins and ends with him, but getting there has been a little bit of a challenge for New York. The way to Rivera usually goes through Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, but the two of them haven't had their best stuff so far in the playoffs. Joba's given up seven hits in 3.1 innings, while Hughes has been hit so much, he wasn't even used last night against Los Angeles. The Yankees are more than likely expecting at least six innings out of each one of their starters, so if it comes down to it, the pressure is going to be on Hughes and Joba to get to Rivera. Mariano is 39 years old, I'm not sure how many more two inning saves he has left in him.
When you stack up the bullpens, they also look very even, with the one exception. Even if the Yankees have trouble getting to him, they still have Rivera sitting there, waiting to close out games in the eighth or ninth innings. He's only blown two saves in his entire postseason career, and while the Phillies have made a habit this postseason of getting to the opposing closer, Mariano is a different creature. Even at age 39, he's the edge that the Yankees need.
Edge: Yankees
Managers:
Charlie Manuel has gotten the Phillies back to the World Series for the second straight year. Not only is he the first Phillies manager to ever do that, but he's the first Major League manager to accomplish that feat since Joe Torre did it with the Yankees at the end of the last decade. Charlie has this team in a business like state of mind. Just like last year, the Phils know that their job isn't done until they're holding the World Series trophy high above their heads, and there's a parade down Broad Street. He's going to have to manage his pitching staff a little bit, with the big choice being who starts Game Two in New York. He hasn't been wrong much with the Phils, so I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt at this point.
Meanwhile, this is Joe Girardi's first taste of the playoffs, and while the Yankees have made it to the World Series, he has made some questionable decisions. He seems to overmanage when it comes to the bullpen, and though his bench is thin, the fact that he keeps sticking with Nick Swisher in right field is an odd one. Aside from C.C. Sabathia's starts, Girardi has gone to his bullpen an awful lot, and has made some interesting choices once he's gone there. Of course, having a $200 million payroll helps win games, but sometimes, strategy gets it done as well. I'm not sure how well Girardi can strategize.
Edge: Phillies
Prediction: Here we are, the World Series. For the second straight year, the Phillies are attempting to reach the top of the mountain. So far, the Yankees haven't had to deal with much on their way here, if I can be honest. The Twins were just happy to make the playoffs after catching the Tigers, and the Angels couldn't get out of their own way in a few of the games. The Phillies have been here before, and aren't going to make stupid base running mistakes, or bow to the "Yankee mystique." In the last two years, the Phillies are 18-5 in the playoffs, and have only lost one game at home. This time, I see it coming down to the first two games of this series. The Phillies have to at least split the first two games with New York if they want a chance to win. The first game against C.C. Sabathia is going to be key, but Game Two against A.J. Burnett is going to be just as, if not even more, important. If the Phillies can keep their mistakes down and get to the Yankee bullpen before Rivera, they have a great shot to win this thing. If they don't, and Brad Lidge slips back into his regular season version, this could get ugly in a hurry. Honestly, I think we're all in for one of the best World Series matchups of the decade. This one is going seven games, and in the end, I think the winner is going to be...
Phillies in 7
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